周五，基准韩国综合股价指数下跌0.4%，至3447点，低于前一交易日的历史最高收盘点位，受到外国投资者抛售和韩国央行谨慎信号的影响。海外投资者抛售了约1170亿韩元的股票，而韩国央行行长李昌镛警告不要快速降息，强调需要保持相对紧缩的政策，并指出限制激进宽松政策的人口逆风。他的立场表明，韩国央行不会迅速反映美联储的政策转变，从而缓和投资者对当地资产的情绪。在全球范围内，美联储自2024年以来首次降息后，市场情绪总体保持积极，刺激了华尔街的反弹，提振了对亚洲股市的兴趣，使韩国综合股价指数连续第四周上涨。在企业方面，大多数权重股下跌，包括三星电子（-0.8%）、SK海力士（-1.%）、LG能源解决方案（-1%）和现代汽车（-2.1%）。

The benchmark KOSPI dropped 0.4% to 3,447 on Friday, pulling back from the previous session’s all-time high close, weighed by foreign investor selling and cautious signals from the Bank of Korea. Overseas investors offloaded about KRW 117 billion in shares, while Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong warned against quick rate cuts, stressing the need to keep policy relatively tight and pointing to demographic headwinds that limit aggressive easing. His stance suggested the BOK will not quickly mirror the Fed’s policy shift, tempering investor sentiment for local assets. Globally, sentiment stayed broadly positive after the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut since 2024, spurring a Wall Street rally and boosting appetite for Asian equities, keeping the KOSPI on track for a fourth straight weekly advance. On the corporate front, most heavyweights slipped, including Samsung Electronics (-0.8%), SK Hynix (-1%), LG Energy Solution (-1%), and Hyundai Motor (-2.1%).

周五，韩元兑美元汇率跌至1394美元左右，这是连续第三天下跌。在美联储降息25个基点并预计今年将再降息两次后，美元兑亚洲货币走强。虽然点图暗示了更温和的立场，但鲍威尔的谨慎言论给更长的宽松周期的前景蒙上了阴影。在国内，由于韩国央行行长李昌镛警告称，由于人口迅速老龄化，韩国可能很快就会面临有效的下限，从而限制了降息的影响，市场情绪进一步受到抑制。他的言论突显了人们对韩国政策工具正在缩小的担忧，这一因素可能会使韩元更容易受到全球利率和资本流动变化的影响。李强调，量化宽松和外汇干预可能会适得其反，他敦促实施贷款融资计划和结构性改革，以加强劳动力参与、移民和地区发展。

The South Korean won slipped to around 1,394 per dollar on Friday, its third straight day of losses, as the greenback firmed against Asian peers after the Fed’s 25 bp cut and projection of two more reductions this year. While the dot plot hinted at a softer stance, Powell’s cautious remarks clouded the outlook for a longer easing cycle. Domestically, sentiment was further weighed down as BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong warned that Korea may soon face the effective lower bound due to rapid population aging, limiting the impact of rate cuts. His remarks underscored concerns that Korea’s policy toolkit is narrowing, a factor that could leave the won more vulnerable to shifts in global rates and capital flows. Rhee highlighted that QE and FX intervention could backfire, urging instead a funding-for-lending scheme and structural reforms to strengthen labor participation, immigration, and regional development.

韩国央行行长李昌镛周四表示，韩国央行计划通过引入未来利率路径的点图来扩大其前瞻性指引。目前，李在每次政策审查后口头披露了六名董事会成员对未来三个月的有条件意见。他在国际货币基金组织Camdessus中央银行讲座上发表演讲时指出：“韩国央行正在进行前瞻性指导试点测试。”。在试验中，“除我之外的六名货币政策委员会成员然后使用点表示他们对明年利率路径的看法”，尽管结果仍然是内部的。该系统允许成员在每个地平线上绘制两到三个点，以显示概率视图。一旦通过，它将标志着该行传达政策的方式发生重大转变，旨在提高透明度和公众理解。李补充说，该倡议有望发展成为“货币政策沟通的有效渠道”

The Bank of Korea plans to broaden its forward guidance by introducing a dot plot of future interest rate paths, Governor Rhee Chang-yong said Thursday. Currently, Rhee verbally discloses the six board members’ conditional views for the next three months after each policy review. “The Bank of Korea is conducting forward guidance pilot tests,” he noted during a speech at the IMF’s Camdessus Central Banking Lecture. In the trial, “six Monetary Policy Board members, excluding myself, then indicate their views on the rate path for the next year using dots,” though the results remain internal. The system allows members to plot two to three dots per horizon to show probabilistic views. Once adopted, it would mark a major shift in how the bank communicates policy, aiming to improve transparency and public understanding. Rhee added the initiative is expected to develop into “an effective channel for monetary policy communication.”

周四，韩元兑美元汇率跌至1383韩元左右，抹去了早些时候的涨幅，因为美联储政策会议结束后，市场恢复了谨慎。美联储将基准利率下调至4.00-4.25%，这是自去年12月以来的首次下调，并表示今年将再降息两次。虽然此举最初削弱了美元并提振了亚洲货币，但主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对“具有挑战性”的前景的警告缓和了市场情绪。由于美韩利率差距仍为1.75个百分点，韩元仍面临下行压力，这加大了资本外流的风险。增加压力的是，韩国央行会议纪要显示，大多数董事会成员支持进一步降息以应对美国关税逆风，尽管债务风险限制了行动。董事会以6比1的投票结果将利率维持在2.50%，但其倾向于宽松政策的倾向增强了人们对未来宽松政策的预期。

The South Korean won slipped to around 1,383 per dollar on Thursday, erasing earlier gains as caution returned following the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. The Fed cut its benchmark rate to 4.00–4.25%, its first reduction since December, and signaled two more cuts this year. While the move initially weakened the dollar and boosted Asian currencies, Chair Jerome Powell’s warning of a “challenging” outlook tempered sentiment. With the US–South Korea rate gap still at 1.75 percentage points, downside pressure on the won remains, heightening the risk of capital outflows. Adding to the pressure, minutes from the Bank of Korea’s meeting showed most board members backing further rate cuts to counter US tariff headwinds, though debt risks limited action. The board voted 6–1 to hold rates at 2.50%, but its lean toward looser policy reinforced expectations for easing ahead.