在小企业反击后，俄罗斯放松了一些增值税上调举措。俄罗斯总理米哈伊尔·米舒斯汀周四在企业主的公开投诉后表示，俄罗斯政府已软化其从2026年开始提高小企业增值税的举措。

Russia softens some VAT hike initiatives after small businesses push back.The Russian government has softened its initiative to increase the value-added tax (VAT) for small businesses starting in 2026, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said on Thursday after public complaints from business owners.

标准普尔全球俄罗斯服务业采购经理人指数从9月的47.0升至2025年10月的51.7，标志着服务业五个月来首次扩张，也是自5月以来最强劲的表现。这一改善反映了产出增长的恢复和新订单下降的放缓。就业人数连续第四个月增加，但创造就业的速度略有放缓，总体保持稳定。与此同时，尽管新订单持续下降，但积压工作略有增加，这是四个月来增长最快的一次。在价格方面，由于工资上涨、运输和供应商成本增加，投入成本通胀加速至六个月来的最高点，尽管增长率仍低于长期系列平均水平。与此同时，随着企业将更高的成本转嫁给客户，销售价格以1月份以来的最快速度上涨。最后，由于对客户偿付能力的担忧，商业情绪降至2022年12月以来的最低水平。

The S&P Global Russia Services PMI rose to 51.7 in October 2025 from 47.0 in September, signaling the first expansion in the services sector in five months and the strongest performance since May. The improvement reflected a return to output growth and a softer decline in new orders. Employment increased for the fourth consecutive month, though the pace of job creation softened slightly and remained solid overall. Meanwhile, the backlog of work increased marginally, marking the fastest rise in four months despite a continued decline in new orders. On the price front, input cost inflation accelerated to a six-month high amid higher wage bills and increased transportation and supplier costs, although the rate of increase remained below the long-run series average. Meanwhile, selling prices rose at the fastest pace since January, as firms passed on higher costs to clients. Finally, business sentiment weakened to the lowest level since December 2022 amid concerns over customer solvency.

标准普尔全球俄罗斯综合采购经理人指数从上个月的46.6攀升至2025年10月的50.2，标志着私营部门活动自5月以来的首次扩张。随着制造业继续收缩，服务业的反弹在很大程度上支持了这一回升。在需求普遍疲软的情况下，新订单仍然疲软。尽管制造业新业务下降幅度更大，但服务订单的小幅下降导致整体下滑放缓。就业人数温和增长，这得益于服务业创造了稳定的就业机会，抵消了制造业的裁员。与此同时，企业看到积压的工作再次略有增加。在价格方面，投入成本稳步上升，尽管随着制造业成本压力的缓和，通货膨胀率从9月份开始有所下降。然而，尽管制造商报告销售价格再次下跌，但产出费用仍以自5月以来的最快速度增长。

The S&P Global Russia Composite PMI climbed to 50.2 in October 2025 from 46.6 in the previous month, signaling the first expansion in private sector activity since May. A rebound in the services sector largely supported the upturn as manufacturing continued to contract. New orders remained subdued amid broad-based demand weakness. Although manufacturing new business declined more sharply, a milder drop in services orders led to a slower overall downturn. Employment grew modestly, supported by solid job creation in services that offset job cuts in manufacturing. Meanwhile, firms saw a renewed but slight buildup in backlogs of work. On the price front, input costs rose at a solid pace, though the rate of inflation eased from September as manufacturing cost pressures moderated. Output charges, however, increased at the fastest pace since May, even as manufacturers reported another fall in selling prices.

10年期俄罗斯自由贸易区收益率从10月下旬的四个月高点15.2%降至14.6%，原因是税收增加和油价反弹缓解了自由贸易区供应增加的背景。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰期间，联邦政府支出的增加促使克里姆林宫提高了明年预算的增值税，预计将产生1.2万亿卢布的额外收入。政府收入前景也受到原油价格上涨的支撑，此前欧佩克+成员国表示明年将暂停增产。这些事态发展暂时抵消了俄罗斯不断恶化的财政背景，因为缓慢的增长迫使政府发出信号，表示今年将增加46%的借款。OFZ也受到俄罗斯银行在应对高通胀时的高利率的压力。基准利率为16.5%，由于通胀风险上升，CBR反对今年再次降息。

The yield on the 10-year Russian OFZ fell to 14.6% from the four-month high of 15.2% from late October as higher taxation and a rebound in oil prices softened the backdrop of increasing OFZ supply. The increasing magnitude of federal government spending in Russia's invasion of Ukraine drove the Kremlin to increase VAT for next year's budget, expected to generate RUB 1.2 trillion of additional revenue. The outlook on government revenues were also supported by the upswing in crude oil prices following pause in output hikes signaled by OPEC+ members for next year. The developments momentarily offset the deteriorating fiscal backdrop for Russia, as slow growth forced the government to signal it will grow borrowing by 46% this year. OFZs were also pressured by high interest rates by the Bank of Russia in its fight against high inflation. The benchmark rate stands at 16.5%, and the CBR pushed back against another rate cut this year due to upside inflation risks.