标准普尔全球俄罗斯服务业采购经理人指数在2025年1月升至54.8，高于12月的三个月低点51.2，这是自2024年1月以来的最高读数，因为在新订单持续增加和更有利的条件下，产出实现了一年来的最大增长。新业务连续第七个月增长，增速达到12个月来最快，整体稳健。就业人数连续第三个月攀升，而积压的工作数量稳步上升，这是自2023年8月以来第二快的增长。在价格方面，由于供应商和运输成本上升以及工资上涨，投入成本通胀加速至12个月来的最高点。作为回应，产出成本通胀加速至一年来最快，因为企业通常会注意到更高的成本转嫁给客户。最后，商业信心改善至四个月高点，这得益于对需求状况增强的希望以及对新服务线和广告的计划投资。

The S&P Global Russia Services PMI increased to 54.8 in January 2025, up from December’s three-month low of 51.2, marking the highest reading since January 2024, as output grew the most in a year amid a sustained rise in new orders and more favorable conditions. New business increased for the seventh month running, with the pace of growth quickened to the fastest in 12 months and was solid overall. Employment climbed for the third straight month while backlogs of work rose solidly, and one that was the second-fastest since August 2023. On prices, input cost inflation accelerated to a 12-month high due to higher supplier and transportation costs alongside increased wage bills. In response, output cost inflation accelerated to the fastest in a year, as firms commonly noted the pass-through of higher costs to customers. Finally, business sentiment improved to a four-month high, buoyed by hopes of stronger demand conditions and planned investment in new service lines and advertising.

1月份，俄罗斯标准普尔全球服务业采购经理人指数从之前的51.2攀升至54.6。1月份，俄罗斯标准普尔全球服务业采购经理人指数从之前的51.2攀升至54.6

Russia S&P Global Services PMI climbed from previous 51.2 to 54.6 in January.Russia S&P Global Services PMI climbed from previous 51.2 to 54.6 in January

2月份，俄罗斯10年期自由贸易区的收益率飙升至16.5%以上，为2024年11月乌克兰入侵后的最高点17%以来的最高水平，原因是政府债券供应充足，全球市场对俄罗斯资产的需求下降，以及对货币政策收紧的担忧挥之不去。卢布暴跌、劳动力危机以及因制裁而改变的供应链导致的通胀飙升，促使央行在今年加息13.5个百分点。在整个政策声明中，央行指出，克里姆林宫的扩张性财政政策和大规模军费开支导致了俄罗斯的通货膨胀，部分资金来自通过拍卖发行的创纪录水平的自由贸易区。与此同时，央行面临着避免加息的政治压力，因为普京总统和俄罗斯商界领袖的鸽派呼吁促使俄罗斯央行在上次会议上保持利率不变，尽管有进一步加息的信号。

The yield on the Russian 10-year OFZ soared over 16.5% in February, the highest since reaching the post-Ukrainian invasion high of 17% in November of 2024 amid the ample supply of government bonds, lower demand for Russian assets from global markets, and lingering concerns of tighter monetary policy. Surging inflation due to a plunging ruble, a labor-force crisis, and altered supply chains in response to sanctions drove the central bank to deliver 13.5 percentage points in rate hikes in the year. Throughout policy statements, the central bank noted that expansionary fiscal policy and the large-scale military spending by the Kremlin contributed to inflation in Russia, financed in part through record levels of OFZ issuances through auctions. In the meantime, the central bank faced political pressure to do refrain from raising rates, as dovish calls from President Putin and Russian business leaders drove the CBR to hold rates unchanged last meeting despite its signal of further hikes.

标准普尔全球俄罗斯制造业采购经理人指数从12月的50.8升至2025年1月的53.1，标志着自去年7月以来的最快扩张。经营状况的急剧改善是由产量和新订单的急剧增长推动的。然而，需求主要来自国内，因为出口订单六个月来首次下降。与此同时，公司略微扩大了员工队伍以满足不断增长的需求，而积压的工作又恢复了增长。供应链问题持续存在，供应商绩效进一步恶化，尽管延误的严重程度有所缓解。在定价方面，由于供应商和运输成本上升，运营成本以历史最高的速度上涨，导致销售价格更快上涨。因此，收费通胀率加快至2023年10月以来的第二快，超过了系列平均水平。展望未来，由于投资计划和对客户需求增加的预期，商业信心增强。

The S&P Global Russia Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.1 in January 2025, up from 50.8 in December, marking the fastest expansion since last July. This sharp improvement in operating conditions was driven by sharp growth in output and new orders. However, demand was primarily domestic, as export orders fell for the first time in six months. Meanwhile, firms expanded their workforce slightly to meet rising demand, while backlogs of work returned to growth. Supply chain issues persisted, with vendor performance deteriorating further, though the severity of delays eased. On the pricing front, operating costs rose at a historically elevated pace due to higher supplier and transportation costs, leading to a quicker rise in selling prices. As a result, the rate of charge inflation quickened to the second-fastest since October 2023, exceeding the series average. Looking ahead, business confidence strengthened, fueled by investment plans and expectations for increased customer demand.