俄罗斯央行行长埃尔维拉·纳比乌利纳周四表示，在决定可能的降息时，俄罗斯央行将考虑最近汽油价格飙升及其对通胀预期的影响。汽油价格自年初以来上涨了10.2%，超过了总体通胀率，部分原因是乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击增加。Nabiullina指出，汽油是影响通胀预期的“标志性”商品之一，而通胀预期是政策决策的关键因素。她说：“汽油价格的上涨可能会减缓通胀预期的下降。不幸的是，目前通胀预期仍处于较高水平。”。Nabiullina将价格飙升描述为不太可能产生持久通胀影响的“一次性”事件，同时补充说，央行今年仍有进一步降息的空间。下一次政策会议定于10月24日举行。

Russia’s central bank will consider the recent surge in gasoline prices and its effect on inflation expectations when deciding on possible rate cuts, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said Thursday. Gasoline prices, which have risen 10.2% since the start of the year—outpacing general inflation—were partly driven by increased Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Nabiullina noted gasoline is one of the “marker” goods influencing inflation expectations, a key factor in policy decisions. “The rise in gasoline prices could slow down the decrease in inflation expectations. Unfortunately, they remain at an elevated level for now,” she said. While describing the price spike as a “one-off” event unlikely to have lasting inflationary effects, Nabiullina added that the central bank still has room to cut rates further this year. The next policy meeting is set for October 24.

根据财政部的初步数据，俄罗斯联邦政府在2025年1月至9月期间公布了3.8万亿卢布的预算缺口，占国内生产总值的1.7%，而2024年同期则有0.2万亿卢布的盈余。这一数字低于政府2025年新的目标，即GDP的2.6%，高于上个月提交给议会的预算文件草案中的1.7%。政府总支出同比增长19.5%，达到30.7万亿卢布，而收入增长2.5%，达到26.9万亿卢布。

The Russian Federal Government posted a budget gap of RUB 3.8 trillion in the January-September period of 2025, or 1.7% of the GDP, compared to a surplus of RUB 0.2 trillion during the same period in 2024, according to preliminary data from the Finance Ministry. The figure was below the government’s new 2025 target of 2.6% of GDP, raised from 1.7% in draft budget documents submitted to parliament last month. Total government spending jumped 19.5% year-on-year to RUB 30.7 trillion, while revenues increased at a much slower 2.5% to RUB 26.9 trillion.

俄罗斯央行储备从之前的7133亿美元攀升至7225亿美元。俄罗斯央行储备从之前的7133亿美元攀升至7225亿美元

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ climbed from previous $713.3B to $722.5B.Russia Central Bank Reserves $ climbed from previous $713.3B to $722.5B

标准普尔全球俄罗斯服务业采购经理人指数在2025年9月降至47.0，低于8月份的50.0的三个月高点。这标志着服务业在过去四个月里第三次收缩，也是自2022年12月以来的最大跌幅，反映出在新订单大幅下降的情况下，产出再次下滑。 尽管新销售额持续疲软，但俄罗斯服务提供商仍在继续扩大员工队伍。就业创造总体上保持稳定，是2024年1月以来最快的。在定价方面，由于供应商、工资和公用事业费用的上涨，投入成本通胀加速至五个月来的最高点。然而，产出价格通胀有所缓解，这反映了强劲的市场竞争和刺激需求的努力。展望未来，商业情绪有所改善，但仍低于历史平均水平，因为企业对经济稳定性的改善和客户数量的潜在增长表示谨慎乐观。

The S&P Global Russia Services PMI fell to 47.0 in September 2025, down from August’s three-month high of 50.0. This marked the third contraction in the services sector over the past four months and the steepest decline since December 2022, reflecting a renewed downturn in output amid a sharp drop in new orders. Despite the sustained weakness in new sales, Russian service providers continued to expand their workforce. Job creation remained solid overall and was the fastest since January 2024. On the pricing front, input cost inflation accelerated to a five-month high, driven by higher supplier, wage, and utility expenses. However, output price inflation eased, reflecting strong market competition and efforts to stimulate demand. Looking ahead, business sentiment improved but remained below the historical average, as firms expressed cautious optimism about improved economic stability and a potential rise in customer numbers.