7月下旬，MOEX俄罗斯指数达到2820点，完全抹去了上半月的大幅下跌，延长了与全球股市走势无关、对全球宏观发展反应甚微的时期，因为西方对俄罗斯的一系列制裁使其金融部门脱离了全球发展。因此，俄罗斯资本流动的前景仍然相对不受美国关税和欧洲经济不确定性的威胁。今年，银行仍然是莫斯科表现最好的银行之一，俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行的交易价格相对接近乌克兰战争前的水平。最近，与中国和中东的金融一体化得到了支持，而CBR指出，如果不良贷款恶化，他们可能会救助商业银行。另一方面，卢克石油公司（Lukoil）、俄罗斯石油公司（Rosneft）和俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（Gazprom）今年出现大幅亏损，因为中国能源需求疲软和对欧洲油轮的制裁收紧损害了它们的销售。

The MOEX Russia Index was at the 2,820 mark in late July, fully erasing the sharp losses from the first half of the month and extending the period of no correlation to movements in global equity markets and little response to global macro developments, as the series of Western sanctions against Russia detached its financial sector to global developments. Consequently, the outlook of capital flows in Russia remained relatively immune to threats of tariffs from the US and economic uncertainty in Europe. Banks remained among Moscow's outperformers this year with Sberbank trading relatively close to pre-Ukraine war levels. This was recently supported by greater financial integration with China and the Middle East, while the CBR noted they may bailout commercial banks if bad loans worsen. On the other hand, Lukoil, Rosneft, and Gazprom held sharp losses from the year as softer energy demand from China and tighter sanctions on tankers from Europe hurt their sales.

俄罗斯的梅金斯基：所有人道主义协议都已达成。俄罗斯的梅金斯基：所有人道主义协议都已达成，第二次交换1200具士兵尸体的工作已经完成，我们建议乌克兰建立三个工作组在网上工作，还建议乌克兰考虑宣布短期停火的数量，我们建议再向乌克兰移交3000具尸体，我们同意进行另一次战俘交换。我们还讨论了遣返被拘留平民的问题。

Russia's Medinsky: All humanitarian agreements have been made.Russia's Medinsky: All humanitarian agreements have been made Says second swap of 1200 of bodies of soldiers completed Says we have proposed Ukraine to establish three working groups to work online Also proposed Ukraine to consider declaring number of short cease-fires We proposed to hand over to Ukraine another 3000 bodies We agreed to carry out another POWs swap. We also discussed repatriation of detained civilians.

俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率为78.5，略低于今年5月触及的76.9的峰值，因为市场评估了欧盟的新制裁可能如何对抗维持卢布汇率的资本管制。欧盟的新制裁计划针对了更多一直在运输俄罗斯能源的俄罗斯银行和影子油轮，同时降低了以低于市场价格15%的价格购买俄罗斯石油的上限。由于克里姆林宫延长了要求公司出售外汇的措施，构建了对卢布的人为需求，卢布今年上涨了45%。新规定要求公司在2026年4月之前出售40%的收益，尽管克里姆林宫表示，公司正在出售70%的收益。与此同时，俄罗斯经济放缓和西方制裁继续阻碍国内企业进口商品和服务，给国内硬通货需求带来压力。同样支撑卢布的是，俄罗斯联邦储备银行将利率保持在接近20%的创纪录水平。

The Russian ruble traded at 78.5 per USD, marginally weaker than this year's peak of 76.9 touched in May as markets assessed how fresh sanctions by the EU may counter capital controls that sustain the ruble's exchange rate. The EU's new sanctions package targeted more Russian banks and shadow tankers that have been transporting Russian energy, while lowering the cap to buy Russian oil at 15% below market price. The currency gained 45% this year as the Kremlin extended measures that mandate companies to sell their foreign exchange, structuring an artificial demand for rubles. The new mandate has companies selling 40% of proceeds until April 2026, although the Kremlin has stated that firms are selling 70% of their earnings. In the meantime, the slowing Russian economy and sanctions from the West continued to prevent domestic businesses from importing goods and services, pressuring domestic demand for hard currency. Also supporting the ruble, the CBR kept rates near a record of 20%.

由于克里姆林宫严格的资本管制和鹰派货币政策，7月份俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率为78，为两年来最高。俄罗斯政府延长了强制公司出售外汇的措施，构建了对卢布的人为需求。新规定要求公司在2026年4月之前出售40%的收益，尽管克里姆林宫表示，公司正在出售70%的收益。与此同时，俄罗斯经济放缓和西方制裁继续阻碍国内企业进口商品和服务，给国内硬通货需求带来压力。在政策方面，CBR在上次会议上将基准利率下调100个基点至20%，但借贷成本仍接近2024年最后一个季度以来的历史最高水平。最后，市场对美国总统特朗普的威胁不屑一顾，即如果普京不同意在9月中旬前在乌克兰停火，将对购买俄罗斯石油的国家征收关税。

The Russian ruble was at 78 per USD in July, its strongest in two years, amid tight capital controls by the Kremlin and hawkish monetary policy. The Russian government extended measures that mandate companies to sell their foreign exchange, structuring an artificial demand for rubles. The new mandate has companies selling 40% of proceeds until April 2026, although the Kremlin has stated that firms are selling 70% of their earnings. In the meantime, the slowing Russian economy and sanctions from the West continued to prevent domestic businesses from importing goods and services, pressuring domestic demand for hard currency. On the policy front, the CBR lowered its benchmark rate by 100bps to 20% in its last meeting, but borrowing costs remained close to their record high held since the final quarter of 2024. Lastly, markets brushed off threats by US President Trump to impose tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil should Putin not agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine by mid-September.