由于交易员评估了俄罗斯、美国和乌克兰之间正在进行的停火谈判，俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率小幅上涨至84.2左右。美国与乌克兰和俄罗斯分别达成协议，暂停对黑海和能源基础设施的袭击，但包括开始日期在内的细节尚不清楚。华盛顿还承诺帮助解除对俄罗斯农产品和化肥出口的国际制裁。克里姆林宫证实了该协议，但强调该协议仍以解除对参与农业贸易的银行和公司的制裁为条件。到2025年为止，卢布兑美元汇率已上涨约25%，2月份达到2023年6月的高点81.7，这得益于缓解地缘政治紧张局势的希望。此外，高借贷成本支撑了货币。3月，俄罗斯央行将政策利率维持在预期的21%，同时对通货紧缩采取了更为乐观的立场。

The Russian ruble edged up to around 84.2 per USD as traders assessed ongoing ceasefire negotiations between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The US brokered separate agreements with Ukraine and Russia to pause attacks in the Black Sea and on energy infrastructure, though details, including the start date, remain unclear. Washington also pledged to help facilitate the lifting of international sanctions on Russian agricultural and fertilizer exports. The Kremlin confirmed the agreement but emphasized that it remains conditional on lifting sanctions on banks and companies involved in agricultural trade. So far in 2025, the ruble has gained approximately 25% against the USD, reaching a June 2023 high of 81.7 in February, supported by hopes of easing geopolitical tensions. Additionally, high borrowing costs have bolstered the currency. In March, the Central Bank of Russia maintained its policy rate at 21% as expected while adopting a more optimistic stance on disinflation.

由于交易员密切关注俄罗斯和美国官员之间的停火谈判，MOEX俄罗斯指数在2月底达到9个月高点后跌至3200以下。虽然乌克兰已同意停火30天，但普京总统拒绝接受美国的所有提议，坚称任何协议都必须防止乌克兰重新武装。与此同时，特朗普总统同意减少普京对俄罗斯和乌克兰之间部分停火的让步。美国的立场与政府更迭后对克里姆林宫更为和解的语气相一致。尽管最近有所回落，但MOEX今年迄今仍上涨约9%，俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行的股价接近乌克兰战争前的水平。此外，俄罗斯最大的黄金生产商Polyus今年的股价飙升了约36%。

The MOEX Russia Index fell below the 3,200 level after reaching a nine-month high in late February, as traders closely monitored ceasefire negotiations between Russian and US officials. While Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, President Putin has resisted accepting all US proposals, maintaining that any agreement must prevent Ukraine from rearming. Meanwhile, President Trump agreed to fewer concessions from Putin for the partial ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The US stance aligns with its more conciliatory tone toward the Kremlin following the change in administration. Despite the latest pullback, the MOEX is still up about 9% year-to-date, with shares of Sberbank nearing pre Ukraine-war levels. Additionally, Polyus, Russia’s largest gold producer, has seen its stock surge roughly 36% this year.

俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率约为84.5，在今年早些时候的一次反弹后暂停，该反弹将其推至2023年6月的高点81.7。在俄罗斯和美国正在进行的停火谈判中，缓解地缘政治紧张局势的希望推动了人民币的上涨。乌克兰已经同意停火30天，但普京总统拒绝接受美国的所有提议，坚称任何协议都必须防止乌克兰重新武装。今年到目前为止，卢布兑美元汇率上涨了约25%，这也得到了利率上升的支持。3月，俄罗斯央行将其政策利率稳定在21%，正如预期的那样，同时对通货紧缩持更乐观的态度。

The Russian ruble traded around 84.5 per USD, pausing after a rally earlier this year that pushed it to a June 2023 high of 81.7. The currency's gains were fueled by hopes of easing geopolitical tensions amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations between Russia and the United States. Ukraine has already agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, but President Putin has resisted accepting all US proposals, insisting that any agreement must prevent Ukraine from rearming. So far this year, the ruble has strengthened about 25% against the USD, also supported by higher interest rates. In March, the Central Bank of Russia kept its policy rate steady at 21%, as expected, while striking a more optimistic tone on disinflation.

3月份，MOEX俄罗斯指数升至3200点，距离2月底触及的9个月高点3326点不远，这得益于市场对CBR可能已经结束紧缩周期的预期，而市场仍在评估美国的制裁减免幅度。俄罗斯央行保持政策利率不变，并在经济的反通胀过程中采取了略微乐观的基调，同时表示不太可能需要再次加息。与此同时，美国总统特朗普同意普京总统对俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的部分停火做出更少的让步。随着美国新总统政府的成立，美国的立场与其对克里姆林宫更友好的言论是一致的，最近几周，由于卫星数据显示油轮在俄罗斯码头装载石油，美国没有对俄罗斯油轮船队实施制裁。俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司均出现反弹，俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行接近乌克兰战争前的高点。

The MOEX Russia Index rose to 3,200 in March, not far from the nine-month high of 3,326 touched in late February, supported by expectations that the CBR may have ended its tightening cycle while markets continued to assess the magnitude of sanction relief by the US. The Russian central bank held it policy rate unchanged and struck a slightly more optimistic tone in the economy's disinflation process while signaling that it is less likely that another rate hike will be needed. In the meantime, US President Trump agreed to fewer concessions by President Putin for the partial ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The US stance was consistent with its friendlier rhetoric towards the Kremlin with the introduction of the new US Presidential administration, with US sanctions on Russia's oil tanker fleet not being imposed in recent weeks as satellite data showed tankers loading oil in Russian docks. Rosneft and Lukoil both rebounded, and Sberbank was near pre-Ukraine war highs.