俄罗斯的年通货膨胀率连续第六个月下降，从上个月的8%降至2025年9月的8%，这是自2024年4月以来的最低水平。这一发展符合俄罗斯央行的预测，即通胀压力不太可能保持在今年上半年的高位，但价格增长仍远高于央行4%的目标。食品价格涨幅放缓（9.5%对8月份的9.8%），而非食品商品（3.9%）和服务（11.1%）的通货膨胀率保持稳定。与此同时，核心通胀率从8%降至7.7%。与上月相比，消费者价格指数在8月份下跌0.4%后上涨了0.3%。

The annual inflation rate in Russia fell for a sixth straight month to 8% in September 2025 from 8% in the previous month, the softest rate since April of 2024. The development was in line with the Bank of Russia's forecast that inflationary pressures were unlikely to remain at the elevated level from the first half of the year, but price growth still held well above the central bank's 4% target. Prices rose at a softer pace for food items (9.5% vs 9.8% in August), while inflation was steady for non-food goods (at 3.9%) and services (at 11.1%). In the meantime, core inflation eased to 7.7% from 8%. From the previous month, consumer prices increased by 0.3%, after a 0.4% fall in August.

俄罗斯消费者价格指数（MoM）从之前的-0.4%上升到9月份的0.34%。俄罗斯消费者价格指数（MoM）从之前的-0.4%上升到9月份的0.34%

Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous -0.4% to 0.34% in September.Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous -0.4% to 0.34% in September

俄罗斯央行行长埃尔维拉·纳比乌利纳周四表示，在决定可能的降息时，俄罗斯央行将考虑最近汽油价格飙升及其对通胀预期的影响。汽油价格自年初以来上涨了10.2%，超过了总体通胀率，部分原因是乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击增加。Nabiullina指出，汽油是影响通胀预期的“标志性”商品之一，而通胀预期是政策决策的关键因素。她说：“汽油价格的上涨可能会减缓通胀预期的下降。不幸的是，目前通胀预期仍处于较高水平。”。Nabiullina将价格飙升描述为不太可能产生持久通胀影响的“一次性”事件，同时补充说，央行今年仍有进一步降息的空间。下一次政策会议定于10月24日举行。

Russia’s central bank will consider the recent surge in gasoline prices and its effect on inflation expectations when deciding on possible rate cuts, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said Thursday. Gasoline prices, which have risen 10.2% since the start of the year—outpacing general inflation—were partly driven by increased Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Nabiullina noted gasoline is one of the “marker” goods influencing inflation expectations, a key factor in policy decisions. “The rise in gasoline prices could slow down the decrease in inflation expectations. Unfortunately, they remain at an elevated level for now,” she said. While describing the price spike as a “one-off” event unlikely to have lasting inflationary effects, Nabiullina added that the central bank still has room to cut rates further this year. The next policy meeting is set for October 24.

根据财政部的初步数据，俄罗斯联邦政府在2025年1月至9月期间公布了3.8万亿卢布的预算缺口，占国内生产总值的1.7%，而2024年同期则有0.2万亿卢布的盈余。这一数字低于政府2025年新的目标，即GDP的2.6%，高于上个月提交给议会的预算文件草案中的1.7%。政府总支出同比增长19.5%，达到30.7万亿卢布，而收入增长2.5%，达到26.9万亿卢布。

The Russian Federal Government posted a budget gap of RUB 3.8 trillion in the January-September period of 2025, or 1.7% of the GDP, compared to a surplus of RUB 0.2 trillion during the same period in 2024, according to preliminary data from the Finance Ministry. The figure was below the government’s new 2025 target of 2.6% of GDP, raised from 1.7% in draft budget documents submitted to parliament last month. Total government spending jumped 19.5% year-on-year to RUB 30.7 trillion, while revenues increased at a much slower 2.5% to RUB 26.9 trillion.