10年期俄罗斯自由贸易区收益率从10月早些时候测试的四个月高点15.2%降至14.6%，这与有利的地缘政治发展对俄罗斯资产的一些支持有关。美国总统特朗普指出，乌克兰总统泽连斯基应该接受更有利的条件来结束与俄罗斯的战争，而欧盟领导人在使用冻结的俄罗斯资产支持乌克兰方面面临障碍。自8月以来，债券供应增加和利率上升引发俄罗斯债务暴跌，这给OFZ带来了一些喘息的机会。明年的预算草案反映了俄罗斯与乌克兰战争期间分配给国防开支的13万亿卢布，占联邦预算的40%，比初步文件中提到的要多，以延长俄罗斯联邦政府的充足支出期。支出持平的同时，俄罗斯经济放缓、卢布走强导致俄罗斯大宗商品价格下跌以及央行加息也给政府收入带来了风险。

The yield on the 10-year Russian OFZ fell to 14.6% from the four-month high of 15.2% tested earlier in October, tracking some support for Russian assets on favorable geopolitical developments. US President Trump noted that Ukrainian President Zelensky should accept more favorable terms to end the war with Russia, while EU leaders faced barriers to using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. The developments added some respite to OFZ's after higher bond supply and higher interest rates triggered a plunge in Russian debt since August. The draft of next year's budget reflected RUB 13 trillion, or 40% of the federal budget, allocated for defense spending amid Russia's war with Ukraine, more than noted in preliminary documents, to extend the period of ample spending by the Russian federal government. The flat spending coincided with risks to government revenues amid Russia's slowing economy, low Russian commodity prices amid a strong ruble, and high interest rates by the central bank.

俄罗斯央行储备美元：7295亿美元对比7225亿美元。俄罗斯央行储备美元：7295亿美元对比7225亿美元

Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $729.5B vs $722.5B.Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $729.5B vs $722.5B

国际货币基金组织（IMF）将俄罗斯2025年的国内生产总值（GDP）增长预测从0.9%下调至0.6%，低于政府官方预测的1%。 俄罗斯经济受到西方的严重制裁，预计将从2024年的4.3%大幅放缓，主要是由于央行为对抗通货膨胀而维持的高关键利率。 目前，关键利率为17%，一些商界领袖建议，需要12%至14%的利率来重新点燃经济增长。8月份公布的初步数据显示，俄罗斯经济在2025年第二季度增长了1.1%，与去年同期的4%相比大幅放缓。

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2025 to 0.6%, down from 0.9%, and below the official government forecast of 1%. Russia’s economy, heavily sanctioned by the West, is expected to slow sharply from 4.3% growth in 2024, primarily due to the high key interest rate maintained by the central bank to combat inflation. The key rate currently stands at 17%, with some business leaders suggesting that a rate between 12% and 14% is needed to reignite economic growth. Preliminary data released in August showed that Russia’s economy grew by 1.1% in Q2 2025, a sharp slowdown from the 4% in the same period a year earlier.

2025年8月，俄罗斯的贸易顺差从一年前的86.5亿美元收窄至74.7亿美元。出口同比下降8.9%，至315.3亿美元，为1月以来的最低水平，主要原因是中国需求疲软，当月减少了原油采购。进口也下降了7.3%，至240.6亿美元，反映了国内需求疲软以及西方制裁的影响，这些制裁继续限制了外国商品和技术的获取。

Russia’s trade surplus narrowed to $7.47 billion in August 2025, down from $8.65 billion a year earlier. Exports fell 8.9% year-on-year to $31.53 billion, the lowest level since January, mainly due to weaker demand from China, which cut its crude oil purchases during the month. Imports also dropped by 7.3% to $24.06 billion, reflecting subdued domestic demand and the impact of Western sanctions that continue to limit access to foreign goods and technology.