俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率徘徊在79.4左右，接近两年高点，在资本管制、紧缩货币政策和美元普遍疲软的支持下，今年迄今已上涨约30%。一个关键的驱动因素是俄罗斯出口商，特别是石油部门的出口商，将外国收入转换为货币，政府要求他们汇回一部分外汇收入，并在国内市场上将其兑换成卢布。入侵乌克兰后出台的额外资本管制措施也提振了卢布。其中包括对外国公司的限制。与此同时，尽管没有达成任何重大协议，但围绕与乌克兰潜在和平谈判的讨论为卢布提供了一些支持。在货币政策方面，俄罗斯央行在2025年6月的会议上将基准利率下调100个基点至20%，这是近三年来的首次下调，理由是通胀缓解和经济疲软的迹象。

The Russian ruble hovered around 79.4 per USD, near two-year highs, and has gained roughly 30% so far this year, supported by capital controls, tight monetary policies, and general dollar weakness. A key driver has been the conversion of foreign earnings by Russian exporters, particularly in the oil sector, who are required by the government to repatriate a portion of their foreign currency revenues and exchange them for rubles on the domestic market. Additional capital control measures, introduced after the invasion of Ukraine, have also bolstered the ruble. These include restrictions on foreign companies. Meanwhile, discussions surrounding potential peace negotiations with Ukraine have offered some support to the ruble, despite no major agreements being reached. In monetary policy, the Central Bank of Russia cut its benchmark interest rate by 100bps to 20% during its June 2025 meeting, the first reduction in nearly three years, citing easing inflation and signs of economic weakness.