路透社调查显示，俄罗斯关键利率将再攀升200个基点至23%。路透社的一项民意调查显示，由于卢布走弱加剧了高通胀，俄罗斯央行预计将在本周2024年的最后一次利率制定会议上将其关键利率再上调200个基点至23%。

Russia's key rate seen climbing by another 200 bps to 23%: Reuters poll.The Russian central bank is expected to hike its key interest rate by another 200 basis points (bps) to 23% at its last rate-setting meeting of 2024 this week, according to a Reuters poll, as high inflation has been exacerbated by a weaker rouble.

MOEX指数跌至2426.00点的20个月低点。在过去的4周里，MOEX下降了10.75%，在过去的12个月里，它下降了21.07%。

MOEX decreased to a 20-month low of 2426.00 Index Points. Over the past 4 weeks, MOEX lost 10.75%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 21.07%.

2024年第三季度，俄罗斯的国内生产总值比去年同期增长了3.1%，这是自2023年第一季度以来最慢的增长，因为2022年入侵乌克兰后西方制裁引发的俄罗斯经济危机的基础效应正在减弱。经济放缓的另一个原因是，随着经济放缓，俄罗斯最大的出口伙伴中国对商品的需求下降。这一数字高于财政部预测的2.9%的增长，略低于央行预测的3.2%的增长。采矿业（-1.1%）和农业、林业、狩猎业（-5.2%）的GDP收缩，被制造业（5.9%）的产出增长所抵消。

Russia’s GDP expanded by 3.1% from the corresponding period of the previous year in the third quarter of 2024, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2023, amid waning base effects from Russia’s economic crisis triggered by Western sanctions after the invasin of Ukraine in 2022. The slowdown was also due to lower demand for goods in China, Russia’s largest export partner, as its economy slows. The figure was above the Ministry of Finance's estimate of a 2.9% expansion, and slightly below the central bank's forecast of a 3.2% growth. The GDP contracted for mining (-1.1%) and agriculture, forestry, hunting (-5.2%), offset by output growth for manufacturing (5.9%).

12月，俄罗斯10年期自由贸易区的收益率保持在16%以上，宽松地保持了自年初以来的370个基点的增长，原因是政府债券供应充足，制裁导致对俄罗斯资产的需求下降，以及俄罗斯银行日益强硬。俄罗斯央行将于下周将其关键利率从目前21%的历史高点上调，以控制卢布的暴跌和俄罗斯今年不断上升的通货膨胀。该行还指出，扩张性财政政策也导致了通胀压力，部分资金来自大量的OFZ发行。尽管卢布走弱支持通过能源出口来填补联邦预算，但俄罗斯的扩张性财政政策和大量资金用于入侵乌克兰，迫使财政部依靠发行债券来为其赤字融资。

The yield on the Russian 10-year OFZ held at above the 16% mark in December, loosely holding the 370bps increase since the start of the year amid ample supply of government bonds, lower demand for Russian assets due to sanctions, and an increasingly hawkish Bank of Russia. The CBR is due to raise its key interest rate from the current record-high of 21% next week in an attempt to reign in the ruble’s plunge and Russia’s rising inflation this year. The bank also noted that expansionary fiscal policy also contributed to inflationary pressures, partially financed through ample OFZ issuing. Despite the support of a weaker ruble in filling the Federal budget through energy exports, Russia’s expansionary fiscal policy and high allocation of funds for invasion of Ukraine forced the Finance Ministry to rely on bond issuing to finance its deficit.