俄罗斯的Nabiullina谈利率、通货膨胀、卢布和关税。俄罗斯央行行长Elvira Nabiullina和她的副手Alexei Zabotkin周五在新闻发布会上发表讲话，此前央行将关键利率维持在21%，正如预期的那样。

Russia's Nabiullina on rates, inflation, the rouble and tariffs.Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and her deputy Alexei Zabotkin addressed a news conference on Friday after the central bank held its key rate at 21%, as expected.

2025年4月25日，俄罗斯央行将关键利率维持在21%的历史新高，与市场预期一致。央行指出，尽管包括核心通胀在内的通胀压力正在逐渐缓解，但仍处于高位。它还警告说，全球经济增长进一步放缓和油价下跌，特别是在贸易紧张局势加剧的情况下，可能会通过卢布汇率动态增加通胀压力。与此同时，央行预计2025年通货膨胀率将放缓至7.0%-8.0%，到2026年将恢复到4.0%。3月份，俄罗斯的年通货膨胀率上升至10.3%。央行将2025年经济增长预测维持在1%-2%不变，并重申货币政策将在较长一段时间内保持紧缩，以确保通胀恢复到目标水平。

The Bank of Russia kept its key interest rate unchanged at a record high of 21% on April 25th 2025, aligning with market expectations. The central bank noted that although inflationary pressures, including core inflation, are gradually easing, they remain elevated. It also cautioned that a further slowdown in global economic growth and a drop in oil prices, especially amid rising trade tensions, could add inflationary pressure through the ruble's exchange rate dynamics. Meanwhile, the central bank expects inflation to slow to 7.0–8.0% in 2025 and return to 4.0% by 2026. In March, Russia’s annual inflation rate rose to 10.3%. The central bank left its 2025 economic growth forecast unchanged at 1%–2% and reaffirmed that monetary policy will remain tight for an extended period to ensure inflation returns to target.

俄罗斯表示，泽连斯基坚决拒绝做出任何让步。俄罗斯表示，泽连斯基坚决拒绝做出任何让步，也拒绝讨论克里米亚的地位。泽连斯基的做法表明，他想把战争打到最后一个乌克兰人。

Russia says Zelensky has categorically refused to make any concessions.Russia says Zelensky has categorically refused to make any concessions or to discuss the status of Crimea. Says Zelensky's approach shows he wants to fight the war until the last Ukrainian.

2025年3月，俄罗斯的工业生产比上一年增长了0.8%，此前一个月增长了0.2%，但低于市场预测的1.8%的增长。数据显示，增长目前仅限于与军事生产相关的行业或取代受制裁进口的行业，而其他行业要么停滞不前，要么正在衰退。在主要类别中，制造业的产出增长更快（4%对2月份的3.2%），而原材料开采（-4.1%对-4.9%）、电力和天然气供应（-2.1%对-3%）以及供水和污水处理服务（-1.4%对-1.8%）的产出继续下降。按月计算，工业生产增长9.5%，从前一个月0.4%的下降大幅反弹。

Industrial production in Russia rose by 0.8% from the previous year in March 2025, following a 0.2% increase in the prior month but missing market estimates of a 1.8% advance. The data showed that growth is now limited to sectors tied to military production or those replacing sanctioned imports, while other industries are either stagnating or declining. Across main categories, output rose faster for manufacturing (4% vs 3,2% in February), while declines continued in raw material extraction (-4.1% vs -4.9%), electricity and gas supply (-2.1% vs -3%), and water and sewage services (-1.4% vs -1.8%). On a monthly basis, industrial production jumped by 9.5%, rebounding sharply from a 0.4% decrease in the previous month.