俄罗斯的Nabiullina谈利率、经济和预算。俄罗斯央行行长Elvira Nabiullina和她的副手Alexei Zabotkin在周五的新闻发布会上发表讲话，此前央行将关键利率从18%降至17%。

Russia's Nabiullina on rates, economy and the budget.Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and her deputy Alexei Zabotkin addressed a news conference on Friday after the central bank cut its key rate to 17% from 18%.

周五，俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率从盘中早些时候触及的五个月低点85飙升至82。央行将基准利率下调100个基点至17%，与今年早些时候CBR下调增长预测200个基点的预期形成鲜明对比。货币政策制定者强调，通胀预期仍然很高，劳动力市场仍然紧张，需要对削减周期保持谨慎。今年，卢布得到了克里姆林宫资本管制的支持，克里姆林宫的公司出售了40%的出口收益，尽管克里姆林宫表示，公司出售了70%的收益。尽管如此，由于对增长的担忧和出口疲软，人民币仍低于今年76的峰值。国际能源署表示，8月份石油和燃料出口收入下降，原因是中国需求疲软，印度面临美国关税的不利影响。

The Russian ruble surged past 82 per USD on Friday from the five-month low of 85 touched earlier in the session amid a hawkish pivot by the Bank of Russia. The central bank cut its benchmark rate by 100bps to 17%, contrasting from expectations of a 200bps cut despite the downward revision to growth forecasts by the CBR earlier this year. Monetary policymakers stressed that inflation expectations remained elevated and that labor markets remained tight, warranting caution on the cutting cycle. The ruble had been supported this year by capital controls by the Kremlin, which has companies selling 40% of export proceeds, although the Kremlin has stated that firms are selling 70% of their earnings. Still, the currency holds weaker than this year's peak of 76 on growth concerns and softer exports. Oil and fuel export revenues sank in August, according to the IEA, amid softer demand from China and headwinds from India as they face tariffs from the US.

俄罗斯央行在2025年9月的决定中将基准利率下调100个基点至17%，这是连续第三次降息，尽管比市场普遍认为的更大幅度下调200个基点要温和。此举标志着自基准利率在截至6月的六个月内保持在21%的历史高点以来，利率下降了400个基点。央行指出，今年货币状况有所缓解，但仍足够紧缩，以应对通胀水平的上升，通胀水平在两年多的时间里一直高于4%的目标。最新数据显示，年价格增长率降至8.1%，为一年多来的最低水平。尽管如此，CBR政策制定者强调，国内消费略有加速，而在通胀预期上升和贸易条件恶化的情况下，短期内通胀风险普遍存在。此外，由于军事动员和工作年龄男性的侨民给劳动力带来了压力，劳动力市场仍然紧张。

The Bank of Russia cut its benchmark interest rate by 100bps to 17% in is September 2025 decision, the third consecutive rate cut, albeit softer than the market consensus of a sharper 200bps cut. The move marked 400bps in reductions since the benchmark rate was held at a record high of 21% for six months to June. The central bank noted that monetary conditions have eased through the year but remain tight enough to combat the elevated levels of inflation, which have remained above the target of 4% for over two years. The latest data showed that annual price growth fell to 8.1%, the lowest in over one year. Still, CBR policymakers stressed that domestic consumption accelerated slightly while pro-inflationary risks prevail in the near-term amid heightened inflation expectations and a deterioration in terms of trade. Further, the labor market remains tight as military mobilization and the diaspora of working-aged men pressured the labor force.

俄罗斯在2025年7月录得132亿美元的贸易顺差，比去年同期的102亿美元有所扩大，这是自2月以来贸易平衡的首次扩大。由于原油出口增加，出口额比上年增长6.7%，达到380亿美元，为去年3月以来的最高水平。反过来，进口下降2.5%，至249亿美元。

Russia recorded a trade surplus of $13.2 billion inn July of 2025, widening from the $10.2 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year, the first widening of the trade balance since February. Exports expanded by 6.7% from the previous year to $38.0 billion, the highest since March of last year, amid higher exports of crude oil. In turn, imports contracted by 2.5% to $24.9 billion.