7月下旬，MOEX俄罗斯指数达到2800点，保持了上半月大幅下跌的大部分反弹，并延长了与全球股市走势无关、对全球宏观发展反应甚微的时期，因为西方对俄罗斯的一系列制裁使其金融部门脱离了全球发展。今年，银行仍然是莫斯科表现最好的银行之一，俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行的交易价格相对接近乌克兰战争前的水平。CBR恢复降息也支持了贷款人的前景，因为随着经济放缓，贷款需求有所缓解，而央行表示，如果不良贷款恶化，他们可能会救助商业银行。另一方面，卢克石油公司（Lukoil）、俄罗斯石油公司（Rosneft）和俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（Gazprom）今年出现大幅亏损，因为中国能源需求疲软和对欧洲油轮的制裁收紧损害了它们的销售。欧盟降低了购买上限，并制裁了更多的俄罗斯银行和油轮。

The MOEX Russia Index was at the 2,800 mark in late July, holding most of the rebound from sharp losses in the first half of the month and extending the period of no correlation to movements in global equity markets and little response to global macro developments, as the series of Western sanctions against Russia detached its financial sector to global developments. Banks remained among Moscow's outperformers this year with Sberbank trading relatively close to pre-Ukraine war levels. The resumption of interest rate cuts by the CBR also supported the outlook for lenders as loan demand has eased with the economy's slowdown, magnified by the central bank's signal they may bailout commercial banks if bad loans worsen. On the other hand, Lukoil, Rosneft, and Gazprom held sharp losses from the year as softer energy demand from China and tighter sanctions on tankers from Europe hurt their sales. The EU lowered their cap on purchases and sanctioned more Russian banks and fuel tankers.

俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率为79，停止了7月早些时候触及的两年高点76.8的反弹，当时俄罗斯央行预计利率会降低。央行将利率下调200个基点至18%，并表示今年可能适合再次降息以刺激经济增长，因为实际利率仍然是全球最高的。尽管如此，由于克里姆林宫的资本管制，人民币今年迄今仍上涨了40%。莫斯科的新规定要求公司在2026年4月之前出售40%的收益，尽管克里姆林宫表示公司正在出售70%的收益。与此同时，俄罗斯经济放缓和西方制裁继续阻碍国内企业进口商品和服务，给国内硬通货需求带来压力。与此同时，欧盟的新制裁计划针对了更多一直在运输俄罗斯能源的俄罗斯银行和影子油轮，同时降低了以低于市场价格15%的价格购买俄罗斯石油的上限。

The Russian ruble was at 79 per USD, halting the rally that topped at two-year highs of 76.8 touched earlier in July amid the outlook of lower rates by the CBR. The central bank cut its rate by 200bps to 18% and signaled that another cut may be appropriate this year to stoke growth, as real rates remain among the highest globally. Still, the currency remained 40% higher year-to-date due to capital controls by the Kremlin. Moscow's new mandate has companies selling 40% of proceeds until April 2026, although the Kremlin has stated that firms are selling 70% of their earnings. In the meantime, the slowing Russian economy and sanctions from the West continued to prevent domestic businesses from importing goods and services, pressuring domestic demand for hard currency. Meanwhile, the EU's new sanctions package targeted more Russian banks and shadow tankers that have been transporting Russian energy, while lowering the cap to buy Russian oil at 15% below market price.

俄罗斯央行在2025年7月的会议上将基准利率下调200个基点至18%，符合市场预期中值，并表示今年可能会再次降息。央行指出，通缩压力的发展程度比6月份的上一个政策决定中预期的要大，因此需要放宽金融条件以应对增长担忧。最新数据显示，与通胀率相比，6月份的年通胀率为9.4%。除了通货紧缩，俄罗斯央行表示，由于卢布升值和家庭消费放缓，限制性借贷成本的影响正变得越来越明显。此外，尽管劳动力持续萎缩，但劳动力市场疲软的迹象仍在继续，这主要是由于普京的军事动员引发了劳动年龄男性的散居。

The bank of Russia cut its benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 18% on its July 2025 meeting, in line with median market expectations, and signaled that it will likely deliver another rate cut this year. The central bank noted that disinflationary pressures have developed at a strong magnitude than expected in the last policy decision in June, warranting looser financial conditions to attend to growth concerns. The lates data showed that annual inflation was at 9.4% in June, compared to the Besides disinflation, the CBR stated that the impact of restrictive borrowing costs is becoming more apparent due to the appreciation of the ruble and slower household consumption. Additionally, signs of a softening labor market continued despite the persistent shrinkage of the labor force, largely due to Putin’s military mobilization triggered a diaspora of working-aged men.

随着通货膨胀的消退，俄罗斯央行将关键利率下调200个基点。正如预期的那样，俄罗斯央行周五将关键利率下调200个基点至18%，并将2025年通胀预测从7%至8%下调至6%至7%，因为数据显示通胀正在放缓。

Russian central bank cuts key rate by 200 bps as inflation subsides.The Russian central bank cut its key interest rate by 200 basis points to 18% on Friday, as expected, and lowered its 2025 inflation forecast to between 6% and 7% from between 7% and 8%, as data showed that inflation was slowing down.