周二，由于贸易风险和对储备银行进一步降息的预期，新西兰元跌至0.584美元左右，回落至四个月低点。美国总统特朗普威胁对中国稀土出口征收高额关税，并警告对维持数字税的国家征税，加剧风险规避，并对大宗商品挂钩货币造成压力，市场情绪减弱。雪上加霜的是，新西兰储备银行上周降息，并以国内和全球增长风险为由表示未来将进一步放松，而新西兰总理克里斯托弗·卢克森批评该行行动不够积极。市场现在认为，10月份再次降息的可能性接近50%，并在11月前完全定价。然而，在特朗普因涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈而罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克引发对央行独立性的担忧后，美元走软在一定程度上缓解了损失。

The New Zealand dollar slipped to around $0.584 on Tuesday, moving back toward its four-month low amid trade risks and expectations of further Reserve Bank rate cuts. Sentiment weakened after US President Trump threatened steep tariffs on China over rare-earth exports and warned of levies on countries maintaining digital taxes, fueling risk aversion and weighing on commodity-linked currencies. Adding to pressure, the RBNZ cut rates last week and signaled more easing ahead, citing domestic and global growth risks, while Prime Minister Christopher Luxon criticized the bank for not acting aggressively enough. Markets now assign nearly a 50% chance of another cut in October and fully price in a move by November. Losses, however, were partly cushioned by a weaker US dollar after Trump’s removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud raised concerns about central bank independence.

新西兰股市在周二早盘几乎没有变化，在前一交易日小幅上涨后徘徊在13079点左右。通信和工业服务的进步几乎抵消了非能源矿产和医疗保健的损失。交易员在劳动力市场担忧的情况下权衡了美联储降息的前景，同时在新西兰总理克里斯托弗·卢克森批评新西兰联储的谨慎立场后评估了国内前景，尽管自去年8月以来借贷成本从5.5%逐步放缓。在华尔街，周一股市收盘下跌，投资者在英伟达盈利和美联储首选通胀指标公布之前获利回吐。在主要贸易伙伴中国，1月至7月的工业利润数据将于本周晚些时候公布，贸易壁垒、需求疲软和最近的恶劣天气给市场情绪蒙上了阴影。Genesis Energy（-2.1%）、T&G Global（-1.9%）和AFT Pharma（-1.5%）下跌，而Scott Tech（2.4%）、Vista Group（1.9%）和Mainfreight（1.8%）上涨。

New Zealand stocks were little changed in early Tuesday trade, hovering around 13,079 after a modest rise in the prior session. Advances in communications and industrial services nearly offset losses in non-energy minerals and healthcare. Traders weighed U.S. Fed rate cut prospects amid labor market concerns, while assessing the domestic outlook after Prime Minister Christopher Luxon criticized the RBNZ’s cautious stance—despite a gradual easing in borrowing costs from 5.5% since last August. On Wall Street, equities closed lower Monday as investors booked profits ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. In major trading partner China, January–July industrial profit data is due later this week, with sentiment clouded by trade barriers, soft demand, and recent adverse weather. Genesis Energy (-2.1%), T&G Global (-1.9%), and AFT Pharma (-1.5%) declined, while Scott Tech (2.4%), Vista Group (1.9%), and Mainfreight (1.8%) posted gains.

鲍威尔演讲后新西兰元飙升，新西兰零售额超预期。周一，新西兰元已经企稳。在欧洲市场，新西兰元/美元交易价格为0.562，当日下跌0.07%。

New Zealand Dollar Flies After Powell Speech, NZ Retail Sales Beat Forecast.The New Zealand dollar has steadied on Monday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.562, down 0.07% on the day.

新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周一上涨0.3%，至13080点，连续第四个交易日上涨，收盘接近八个月高点。这一上涨反映出，在美联储主席鲍威尔强调美国劳动力市场下行风险上升，为未来降息敞开大门后，风险情绪有所改善。在国内，总理克里斯托弗·卢克森批评储备银行在上周将关键利率下调25个基点后，没有大幅降息以刺激经济增长。截至6月的三个月里，零售额环比增长0.5%，较第一季度的0.8%有所放缓，但超过了0.2%的预期，这表明较低的利率开始支持经济活动。在整个交易所，通信、科技和非能源矿产板块领涨，其中Chorus（+2.3%）、Gentrack（+3.7%）、Eroad（+4.3%），Fletcher（+1.3%）和Santana（+2.3%.）表现突出。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index grew 0.3% to 13,080 on Monday, rising for a fourth consecutive session and closing near an eight-month high. The advance reflected improved risk sentiment after Federal Reserve Chair Powell highlighted rising downside risks to the US labor market, leaving the door open for future rate cuts. Domestically, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon criticized the Reserve Bank for not cutting rates aggressively enough to stimulate growth, following last week’s 25bps reduction to the key rate. Retail sales rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June, slowing from a 0.8% gain in Q1 but surpassing forecasts of 0.2%, suggesting that lower interest rates are beginning to support activity. Across the bourse, communications, technology, and non-energy mineral sectors led gains, with notable performances from Chorus (+2.3%), Gentrack (+3.7%), Eroad (+4.3%), Fletcher (+1.3%), and Santana (+2.3%).