更新的RBNZ OCR预测概况。下周二，我们将在《5月经济概览》中发布最新的经济预测。这些预测将更新自2月以来的经济演变，并首次下调量化全球贸易环境可能疲软和不确定对国内经济造成的下行风险。

Updated RBNZ OCR Forecast Profile.Next Tuesday we will be releasing updated economic forecasts in our May Economic Overview. These forecasts will update for the evolution of the economy since February as well as making a first cut at quantifying the downside risks to the domestic economy stemming from the potentially weaker and more uncertain global trade environment.

周五，新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数上涨1.1%，收于12605点，创下两个多月来的最高水平，在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布与英国达成贸易协议后，投资者情绪有所改善。该协议还提振了对定于周六在瑞士举行的美中贸易谈判进展的乐观情绪。在企业方面，几乎所有大盘股都以绿色收盘。医疗器械制造商斐雪派克上涨1.7%，而制药供应商Ebos Group上涨3.3%。公用事业提供商Meridian Energy、Mercury NZ和Contact Energy分别上涨1.6%、2%和2.35%。基础设施投资者Infratil也上涨了2.65%。本周，NZX-50指数上涨2.25%，连续第二周上涨。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index jumped 1.1% to close at 12,605 on Friday, hitting its highest level in over two months, as investor sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with the U.K. The deal also fueled optimism over progress in the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks scheduled for Saturday in Switzerland. On the corporate front, nearly all large-cap stocks ended in the green. Medical device maker Fisher & Paykel added 1.7%, while pharmaceutical supplier Ebos Group advanced 3.3%. Utility providers Meridian Energy, Mercury NZ, and Contact Energy rose 1.6%, 2%, and 2.35%, respectively. Infrastructure investor Infratil also gained 2.65%. For the week, the NZX-50 climbed 2.25%, marking its second consecutive weekly gain.

周五，新西兰元跌至0.588美元左右，连续第三个交易日下跌，达到三周多来的最低水平。新西兰元面临压力，因为唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布与英国达成贸易协议后，美元走强，他称之为“许多协议中的第一个”。这也增加了周末在瑞士举行的美中谈判取得进展的希望。在国内方面，新西兰储备银行进一步降息的预期进一步压低了人民币汇率。本周早些时候公布的数据显示，紧张的劳动力市场状况有所缓解，工资压力有所减轻，支持了央行的宽松倾向，并指出本月晚些时候将再次降息25个基点。预计到年底，利率将触底至3.0%，掉期交易意味着2025年剩余时间将再降息三次。本周，新西兰元下跌了约1%，这是连续第二周下跌。

The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.588 on Friday, extending losses for a third consecutive session and reaching its lowest level in over three weeks. The Kiwi came under pressure as the U.S. dollar strengthened following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a trade agreement with the UK, which he described as “the first of many.” This also raised hopes of progress in U.S.-China talks in Switzerland over the weekend. On the domestic front, the currency was further weighed down by expectations of further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Data released earlier this week showed an easing in tight labor market conditions and a softening in wage pressures, supporting the central bank’s easing bias and pointing to another 25bps rate cut later this month. Rates are seen bottoming at 3.0% by year-end, with swaps implying an additional three rate cuts for the rest of 2025. For the week, the Kiwi has declined around 1%, marking its second straight weekly loss.

周五早盘，新西兰股市飙升124点，涨幅1.0%，至12591点，扭转了前一交易日的跌幅，达到两个月来的最高点。在特朗普总统宣布与英国达成贸易协议，并暗示如果即将进行的谈判顺利进行，可能会降低对中国商品的关税后，华尔街的积极领先提振了市场情绪。在国内，人们的注意力转向了即将到来的2025年预算，卢森堡首相指出，资本支出预计将超过此前的预测。所有行业都参与了反弹，第三年龄健康服务（2.2%）、斐雪派克医疗保健（2.1%）和奥克兰国际机场（1.8%）的涨幅显著。本周，基准NZX 50有望连续第二周上涨，迄今上涨约2%。然而，在中国4月关键数据公布之前，投资者的谨慎态度限制了进一步的上涨，包括今天晚些时候公布的贸易数据和预计周末公布的通胀数据（CPI/PPI）。

New Zealand shares surged 124 points, or 1.0%, to 12,591 in early trading on Friday, reversing losses from the prior session and reaching their highest in two months. Sentiment was buoyed by a positive lead from Wall Street after President Trump announced a trade deal with the UK and suggested tariffs on Chinese goods could be reduced if upcoming negotiations proceed smoothly. At home, attention turned to the upcoming 2025 budget, with Prime Minister Luxon noting that capital spending is expected to exceed earlier forecasts. All sectors participated in the rally, with notable gains from Third Age Health Services (2.2%), Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (2.1%), and Auckland Intl. Airport (1.8%). For the week, the benchmark NZX 50 is on track to log its second straight weekly gain, up around 2% so far. However, further upside was limited by investor caution ahead of key April data from China, including trade figures due later today and inflation data (CPI/PPI) expected over the weekend.