周二，标准普尔/NZX 50指数下跌0.3%，收于12929点，结束了四天的涨幅，从近六个月的高点回落，受到通信、非能源矿产和耐用消费品类股下跌的拖累。交易员也在储备银行周三的货币政策决定之前做好了准备。市场预计利率将下调25个基点至3%，使宽松周期达到250个基点。分析人士指出，政策接近中性，早先的削减仍在进行，但疲软的增长和闲置产能可能证明进一步放松是合理的。两年期掉期利率仍接近2022年初以来的最低水平，这使得它们容易受到任何鹰派意外的影响。在数据方面，第二季度生产者产出价格环比上涨0.6%，低于第一季度2.1%的涨幅，也低于1%的预期涨幅。在通信、非能源矿产和耐用消费品股票中，排名靠后的包括Spark NZ（-2%）、Chorus（-1%）、Fletcher（-1%”）、Santana（-1.5%）和KMD Brands（-3.9%）。

The S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.3% to close at 12,929 on Tuesday, snapping a four-day gain and retreating from a nearly six-month high, weighed down by losses in communication, non-energy minerals, and consumer durables stocks. Traders also positioned ahead of the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Markets have priced in a 25bps cut to 3%, bringing the easing cycle to 250bps. Analysts note that policy is near neutral, with earlier cuts still filtering through, but weak growth and spare capacity could justify further easing. Two-year swap rates remain near their lowest levels since early 2022, leaving them vulnerable to any hawkish surprise. On the data front, producer output prices rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, slowing from a 2.1% increase in Q1 and below expectations for a 1% gain. Among communication, non-energy minerals, and consumer durables stocks, top laggards included Spark NZ (-2%), Chorus (-1%), Fletcher (-1%), Santana (-1.5%), and KMD Brands (-3.9%).

活动指南：新西兰储备银行货币政策声明（2025年8月）。人们普遍预计新西兰储备银行本周将降息，但他们会暗示进一步放松吗？以下是您在交易这一重大事件时需要知道的要点。

Event Guide: RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement (August 2025).RBNZ is widely expected to cut interest rates this week, but will they hint at further easing? Here are the points you need to know when trading this major event.

周二，新西兰元徘徊在0.593美元左右，由于交易员在新西兰储备银行利率决定之前做好准备，因此仍局限在狭窄的区间内。市场已经将利率下调25个基点至3%，将当前的宽松周期延长至250个基点。支持进一步宽松政策的理由是，第二季度生产者产出价格环比上涨0.6%，较第一季度2.1%的涨幅有所放缓，低于1%的预期涨幅。然而，分析人士指出，政策环境接近中性，之前削减的影响仍在渗透到经济中。即便如此，增长缓慢和产能过剩也可能成为进一步宽松政策的理由。与此同时，两年期掉期利率仍接近2022年初以来的最低水平，使其面临任何鹰派的意外。在其他地方，人们的注意力正在转向全球事件，包括主要贸易伙伴中国的政策利率决定、美联储主席鲍威尔关于美国货币政策线索的演讲，以及可能影响风险情绪的关键的美俄会谈。

The New Zealand dollar hovered around $0.593 on Tuesday, remaining confined to a narrow range as traders braced ahead of the RBNZ’s rate decision. Markets have already priced in a 25bps cut to 3%, extending the current loosening cycle to a total of 250bps. Supporting the case for further easing, producer output prices rose 0.6% qoq in Q2, slowing from a 2.1% increase in Q1 and below expectations for a 1% gain. Analysts note, however, that policy settings are near neutral and the effects of previous cuts are still filtering through the economy. Even so, sluggish growth and excess capacity could justify additional easing. Meanwhile, two-year swap rates remain near its lowest levels since early 2022, leaving them exposed to any hawkish surprise. Elsewhere, attention is shifting to global events, including key trade partner China’s policy rate decision, Fed Chair Powell’s speech for clues on US monetary policy, and crucial US–Russia talks that could influence risk sentiment.

周二早盘，新西兰元50指数下跌80点，跌幅0.6%，至12891点，停止了前四个交易日的涨幅，并从2月份前一天达到的最高水平回落。下降的主要原因是医疗保健、能源和工业。在周三新西兰储备银行货币政策会议之前，交易员们持谨慎态度。央行在7月份因国内经济疲软和高失业率而暂停加息后，预计将降息25个基点至3%。交易员还预计，在国内需求进一步疲软的情况下，中国将做出利率决定。在美联储7月会议纪要和美联储主席鲍威尔本周晚些时候在杰克逊霍尔发表主题演讲之前，人们也普遍持谨慎态度，这可能会指导央行的货币政策轨迹。在数据方面，新西兰第二季度PPI上涨0.6%，低于第一季度，低于预期。早期的失败者包括Infratil（-2.5%）、Fisher&Paykel（-1.8%）和Contact Energy（-1.4%）。

The NZX 50 fell 80 points, or 0.6%, to 12,891 in early trading on Tuesday, halting gains from the previous four sessions and retreating from its highest level since February, reached the day before. The decline was mainly driven by healthcare, energy, and industrials. Traders were cautious ahead of the RBNZ’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The central bank is expected to cut the interest rate by 25 bps to 3%, after pausing in July amid a weak domestic economy and high unemployment. Traders also anticipated the interest rate decision in China, amid further weak domestic demand. Caution also prevailed ahead of the release of the Fed's July meeting minutes and Fed Chair Powell's keynote speech at Jackson Hole later this week, which could guide the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory. On the data front, PPI in New Zealand rose by 0.6% in Q2, softer than Q1 and below expectations. Among early losers were Infratil (-2.5%), Fisher & Paykel (-1.8%), and Contact Energy (-1.4%).