新西兰央行行长表示，关税可能降低中期通胀风险，抑制支出。新西兰一位高级央行行长周四表示，虽然美国关税的全面影响仍不确定，但它们可能会缓解该国的中期通胀压力，尽管关税可能会抑制商业投资和家庭支出。

Tariffs may lower medium-term inflation risks, curb spending, says New Zealand central banker.A top New Zealand central banker said on Thursday that while the full impact of U.S. tariffs remains uncertain, they could ease medium-term inflation pressures in the country, although the tariffs might dampen business investment and household spending.

周四，新西兰元升至0.605美元左右，达到两周多来的最高水平，原因是美元走软，以及美国与主要伙伴之间的贸易谈判取得进展后全球风险情绪有所改善。据报道，欧盟和美国正在朝着一项协议迈进，该协议将对来自欧盟的大多数进口商品征收15%的关税，这一结构类似于周二与日本达成的协议。在国内方面，新西兰储备银行首席经济学家Paul Conway周四表示，如果价格压力的前景继续如预期般缓解，央行准备进一步降息。他还警告称，美国的关税可能会拖累经济增长并抑制需求，并补充说，美国将继续密切关注即将公布的数据。目前，市场预计8月份降息25个基点的可能性为80%，尽管投资者越来越相信新西兰储备银行可能即将结束其宽松周期。

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.605 on Thursday, reaching its highest level in more than two weeks, amid a softer US dollar and improved global risk sentiment following progress in trade talks between the US and key partners. The EU and the US are reportedly moving towards an agreement that would set a 15% tariff on most imports from the bloc—a structure similar to a deal struck with Japan on Tuesday. On the domestic front, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said on Thursday that the central bank is ready to cut interest rates further if the outlook for price pressures continue to ease as expected. He also warned that US tariffs are likely to weigh on economic growth and dampen demand, adding that the country will continue to closely monitor incoming data. Currently, markets are pricing in an 80% probability of a 25bps cut in August, though investors increasingly believe the RBNZ may be approaching the end of its easing cycle.

RBNZ的Conway：关税影响为新西兰通胀降温。新西兰储备银行首席经济学家Paul Conway今天表示，全球关税的上升和经济的不确定性可能会“减轻新西兰的中期通胀压力”，并拖累该国经济反弹至2026年中期。尽管美国面临着关税引发的供应链中断带来的成本上升，但Conway表示，由于全球经济增长放缓和进口价格下跌，新西兰更有可能经历通货紧缩。

RBNZ's Conway: Tariff fallout to cool NZ inflation.Speaking today, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said rising global tariffs and economic uncertainty are likely to “reduce medium-term inflation pressures” in New Zealand, and drag on the country's economic rebound through mid-2026. While the US faces rising costs from tariff-induced supply chain disruptions, Conway said New Zealand is more likely to experience disinflation due to lower global growth and falling import prices.

新西兰股市周四早盘微涨12点，涨幅0.1%，至12806点，在前两个交易日下跌后试图上涨。在与日本达成类似协议后，美国和欧盟达成贸易协议，新西兰元50指数隔夜追随华尔街反弹。这一结果增加了与新西兰最大贸易伙伴中国达成更详细贸易协议的希望。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特否认特朗普将取代鲍威尔，这也增强了市场情绪。然而，在新西兰储备银行首席经济学家Paul Conway发表演讲之前，人们越来越谨慎，这可能会在周一的通胀数据和美国新关税对通胀的影响之后指导8月份的货币政策决定。通信服务、金融和非必需消费品主要推动该指数上涨，Skellerup（1.5%）、新西兰南港（1.0%）、萨默塞特集团（1.0%）和特纳汽车集团（0.9%）涨幅显著。

Equities in New Zealand edged up 12 points, or 0.1%, to 12,806 in morning trade on Thursday, attempting to rise after falling in the previous two sessions. The NZX 50 tracked a rally on Wall Street overnight following trade deals between the US and the EU, which came after a similar agreement with Japan. The result raised hopes of a further detailed trade agreement with China, New Zealand's top trading partner. US Treasury SecretaryScott Bessent’s denial that Trump would replace Powell also strengthened market sentiment. However, caution was building ahead of a speech by Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway, which could guide the monetary policy decision in August after Monday’s inflation data and the impact of new US tariffs on inflation. Communication services, financials, and consumer discretionary mainly drove the index, with notable gains from Skellerup (1.5%), South Port of New Zealand (1.0%), Summerset Group (1.0%), and Turners Automotive Group (0.9%).