新西兰储备银行政策决定预览。市场几乎完全消化了降息25个基点的预期，这将使新西兰储备银行的官方现金利率降至3.00%。OIS定价目前下调的可能性约为92%。

Preview for the RBNZ policy decision.Markets are almost fully pricing in a 25bp rate cut, which would take the RBNZ's Official Cash Rate down to 3.00%. OIS pricing is currently sitting around a 92% probability for a cut.

新西兰股市周三早盘下跌10点，跌幅0.1%，至12918点，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，因为交易员在今天晚些时候的利率决定之前保持谨慎。新西兰元50指数隔夜追随华尔街下跌，主要科技板块下跌。尽管在经济疲软和高失业率的情况下，人们预计新西兰储备银行将通过将利率下调25个基点至3%来放松货币政策，但人们普遍持谨慎态度。交易员们还预计，新西兰最大贸易伙伴中国将在今天晚些时候做出利率决定。人们的注意力也集中在美联储主席鲍威尔本周五即将在杰克逊霍尔发表的演讲上，因为市场正在寻找有关美联储9月份会议利率决定的信号。科技板块主要拖累指数下跌，其次是医疗保健和房地产板块下跌。早期的输家包括Gentrack Group（-2.0%）、Briscoe Group（-1.3%）和Fisher&Paykel（-0.7%）。

Equities in New Zealand fell 10 points, or 0.1%, to 12,918 in morning trade on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session as traders remained cautious ahead of the interest rate decision later today. The NZX 50 tracked a decline on Wall Street overnight, weighed down by losses in major tech sectors. Caution prevailed despite expectations that the RBNZ would ease monetary policy by cutting the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%, amid a weak economy and high unemployment. Traders also anticipate an interest rate decision from China, New Zealand's top trading partner, later today. Attention is also focused on Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech in Jackson Hole this Friday, as markets look for signals regarding the interest rate decision at the Fed's September meeting. The tech sector primarily dragged the index lower, followed by declines in healthcare and real estate. Early losers included Gentrack Group (-2.0%), Briscoe Group (-1.3%), and Fisher & Paykel (-0.7%).

新西兰元下跌，美联储会议纪要公布。周二，新西兰元（NZD）兑美元（USD）走弱，交易员在关键宏观催化剂之前重新定位，包括美联储（Fed）7月会议纪要的发布和本周晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会。由于市场情绪谨慎，美元全线走高，在周三新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）利率决定之前，新西兰元面临压力。

New Zealand Dollar dips with RBNZ cut in focus, Fed minutes on deck.The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, as traders reposition ahead of key macro catalysts, including the release of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) July meeting minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week. The Greenback edges higher across the board amid cautious sentiment, adding pressure on the Kiwi ahead of Wednesday's Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision.

周二，标准普尔/NZX 50指数下跌0.3%，收于12929点，结束了四天的涨幅，从近六个月的高点回落，受到通信、非能源矿产和耐用消费品类股下跌的拖累。交易员也在储备银行周三的货币政策决定之前做好了准备。市场预计利率将下调25个基点至3%，使宽松周期达到250个基点。分析人士指出，政策接近中性，早先的削减仍在进行，但疲软的增长和闲置产能可能证明进一步放松是合理的。两年期掉期利率仍接近2022年初以来的最低水平，这使得它们容易受到任何鹰派意外的影响。在数据方面，第二季度生产者产出价格环比上涨0.6%，低于第一季度2.1%的涨幅，也低于1%的预期涨幅。在通信、非能源矿产和耐用消费品股票中，排名靠后的包括Spark NZ（-2%）、Chorus（-1%）、Fletcher（-1%”）、Santana（-1.5%）和KMD Brands（-3.9%）。

The S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.3% to close at 12,929 on Tuesday, snapping a four-day gain and retreating from a nearly six-month high, weighed down by losses in communication, non-energy minerals, and consumer durables stocks. Traders also positioned ahead of the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Markets have priced in a 25bps cut to 3%, bringing the easing cycle to 250bps. Analysts note that policy is near neutral, with earlier cuts still filtering through, but weak growth and spare capacity could justify further easing. Two-year swap rates remain near their lowest levels since early 2022, leaving them vulnerable to any hawkish surprise. On the data front, producer output prices rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, slowing from a 2.1% increase in Q1 and below expectations for a 1% gain. Among communication, non-energy minerals, and consumer durables stocks, top laggards included Spark NZ (-2%), Chorus (-1%), Fletcher (-1%), Santana (-1.5%), and KMD Brands (-3.9%).