通胀预期创1年新高，新西兰元大幅上涨。新西兰的两年期通胀预期在第二季度攀升至2.29%，高于第一季度的2.06%，为去年5月以来的最高水平。调查还预测，第二季度的一年期通胀预期将从第一季度的2.15%上升至2.41%，也是去年5月来的最高水平。

New Zealand Dollar Jumps as Inflation Expectations Hits 1-Year High.New Zealand's two-year inflation expectations climbed to 2.29% in the second quarter, up from 2.06% in Q1, its highest level since last May. The survey also predicted that one-year inflation expectations would rise to 2.41% in Q2, up from 2.15% in the first quarter, also the highest since last May.

新西兰基准标准普尔/新西兰50指数周五下跌0.7%，收于12787点，因对美中贸易谈判的乐观情绪消退。本周早些时候，投资者对美中贸易战的暂时休战表示欢迎，这大大降低了全球经济衰退的可能性。在国内新闻方面，新西兰4月份的制造业活动连续第四个月扩大，这得益于新订单的增加。在企业方面，大多数指数权重股收盘下跌，斐雪派克（-1.4%）、新西兰水星（-1.1%）和Contact Energy（-2.4%）的跌幅明显。其他跌幅较大的公司包括Fletcher Building（-2.6%）、Summerset Group（-2.3%）、Skellerup Holdings（-3.1%）和Oceania Healthcare（-3.0%）。尽管周五有所回落，新西兰元50指数仍创下1.4%的周涨幅，标志着连续第三周上涨。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index dropped 0.7% to close at 12,787 on Friday, as optimism over US-China trade talks faded. Earlier this week, investors cheered the temporary truce in the trade war between the US and China, which has greatly lessened the chance of a global recession. In domestic news, New Zealand’s manufacturing activity expanded for the fourth consecutive month in April, helped by an increase in new orders. On the corporate front, most index heavyweights finished lower, with notable declines seen from Fisher & Paykel (-1.4%), Mercury NZ (-1.1%), and Contact Energy (-2.4%). Other significant losers included Fletcher Building (-2.6%), Summerset Group (-2.3%), Skellerup Holdings (-3.1%), and Oceania Healthcare (-3.0%). Despite Friday’s pullback, the NZX 50 posted a 1.4% weekly gain, marking its third consecutive weekly advance.

新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）的季度预期调查显示，截至2025年第二季度，企业经理现在认为未来两年的平均通胀率为2.29%，高于上一季度的2.06%，为一年来的最高水平。一年期通胀预期也从2.15%升至2.41%，为四个季度以来的最高水平。长期预测显示，未来五年的通胀预期从2.13%微升至2.18%，而10年的预期从2.07%升至2.15%。至于利率，受访者预测，到2025年第一季度末，官方现金利率（OCR）将为3.77%，到年底将降至3.23%。

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations revealed that business managers now see inflation averaging 2.29% over the next two years as of Q2 2025, up from 2.06% in the previous quarter—the highest in a year. One-year inflation expectations also rose to 2.41% from 2.15%r—the highest in four quarters. Longer-term projections showed five-year-ahead inflation expectations edging up to 2.18% from 2.13%, while 10-year expectations increased to 2.15% from 2.07%. As for interest rates, respondents forecast the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to stand at 3.77% by the end of Q1 2025, before declining to 3.23% by year-end.

新西兰储备银行通胀预期升至2.41%，未来将进一步宽松。未来一年的通胀预期从2.15%攀升至2.41%，而两年的预期从2.06%上升至2.29%。即使是长期预测也有所上升，未来五年和十年的预期分别上升至2.18%和2.15%。

RBNZ inflation expectations rise to 2.41%, further easing seen ahead.One-year-ahead inflation expectations climbed from 2.15% to 2.41%, while two-year expectations rose from 2.06% to 2.29%. Even long-term projections edged higher, with five- and ten-year-ahead expectations increasing to 2.18% and 2.15% respectively.