周一，新西兰元跌至0.586美元左右，在上一交易日从四个月低点反弹后步履蹒跚，受到鸽派储备银行前景的压力。上周，新西兰储备银行将官方现金利率下调25个基点，至3%的三年低点，并表示将进一步放松以支持陷入困境的经济。首相克里斯托弗·卢克森的回应是批评央行没有大幅降息以刺激经济增长。在数据方面，截至6月的三个月里，零售额环比增长0.5%，较第一季度的0.8%有所放缓，但超过了0.2%的预期，这表明较低的利率开始有助于经济活动。与此同时，新西兰元上周获得支撑，从4月11日以来的最低水平反弹，因为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔指出劳动力市场下行风险上升，暗示未来有可能降息，导致美元走软。

The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.586 on Monday, faltering after rebounding from a four-month low in the last session, pressured by a dovish Reserve Bank outlook. Last week, the RBNZ lowered the official cash rate by 25 basis points to a three-year low of 3% and signaled further easing to support the struggling economy. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon responded by criticizing the central bank for not cutting rates aggressively enough to stimulate growth. On the data front, retail sales rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June, slowing from a 0.8% gain in Q1 but exceeding forecasts of 0.2%, suggesting that lower interest rates are beginning to help activity. Meanwhile, the kiwi found support last week, rebounding from its lowest level since April 11, as the US dollar softened following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s noting on rising downside risks to the labor market, suggesting the possibility of future rate cuts.

第一印象：新西兰零售业，2025年6月季度。6月季度零售支出水平上涨0.5%，超出预期。零售业形势依然严峻，但我们开始看到期待已久的复苏迹象正在形成。

First Impressions: NZ retail Trade, June Quarter 2025.Retail spending levels rose 0.5% in the June quarter, beating expectations. Retail sector conditions remain tough, but we are starting to see signs of the long-awaited recovery taking shape.

新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）提议降低存款人的最低资本要求，并已开始协商。央行周一表示，一个关键的政策选择是将最低资本要求从3000万新西兰元降至500万新西兰元（293万美元）。据路透社报道，该声明称：“这减少了进入壁垒。”。咨询文件指出，监管的任何转变预计都不会导致重大的经济变化。目前不断上升的资本要求是在2019年宣布的，并且正在缓慢实施，预计在2028年之前不会全面实施。新西兰储备银行行长克里斯蒂安·霍克斯比表示：“我们必须取得适当的平衡——保护存款人和更广泛的经济，同时支持竞争和经济效率。”。

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is proposing to reduce the minimum capital requirement for deposit takers and has begun consultations. The central bank said on Monday that one key policy option is to lower the minimum capital requirement to NZ$5 million (US$2.93 million), down from NZ$30 million. This reduces barriers to entry,” the statement said, as reported by Reuters. It is noted in the consultation document that any shift in regulation is not expected to cause significant economic change. The current, rising capital requirements were announced in 2019 and are being brought in slowly, with full implementation not expected before 2028. “It’s essential we strike the right balance — protecting depositors and the wider economy, while supporting competition and economic efficiency,” said RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby.

截至2025年6月的三个月里，新西兰零售额环比增长0.5%，较第一季度0.8%的增长有所缓解，但超过了市场预期的0.2%的增长。经价格和季节性影响调整后，15个零售行业中有8个的销售额高于2025年3月的季度。最大的贡献来自电气和电子产品，增长了4.6%，其次是超市和杂货店，增长了1.3%，药品零售增长了1.2%。另一方面，服装、鞋类和个人配饰、住宿和燃料零售的跌幅最大。从地区角度来看，南岛的零售额增长了0.2%，而北岛的销售额下降了0.3%。按年度计算，第二季度零售总额增长2.3%，与第一季度0.7%的增长相比明显加速。

Retail sales in New Zealand rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June 2025, easing from a 0.8% increase in the first quarter but exceeding market expectations of a 0.2% gain. Adjusted for price and seasonal effects, 8 of the 15 retail industries recorded higher sales volumes compared with the March 2025 quarter. The largest contributions came from electrical and electronic goods, which jumped 4.6%, followed by supermarkets and grocery stores at 1.3%, and pharmaceutical retailing at 1.2%. On the other hand, clothing, footwear and personal accessories, accommodation, and fuel retailing posted the sharpest declines. From a regional perspective, retail sales in the South Island increased by 0.2%, while sales in the North Island fell 0.3%. On an annual basis, total retail sales climbed 2.3% in Q2, marking a notable acceleration from the 0.7% gain recorded in Q1.