新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周四下跌0.5%，收于12569点，连续第三个交易日下跌，投资者对美国可能卷入以色列-伊朗冲突感到紧张。两国之间的空战现已进入第七天，唐纳德·特朗普总统一直在猜测美国是否会加入以色列对伊朗核设施的轰炸。在国内方面，最新数据显示，新西兰经济在3月季度增长了0.8%，略高于预测的0.7%的增长率，并在上一季度修正后增长了0.5%。这些数据表明，经济复苏势头强劲，并强化了反对7月份降息的理由。在大盘股中，Infratil（-1%）、Mainfreight（-3.3%）、Contact Energy（-1%。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index dropped 0.5% to close at 12,569 on Thursday, marking its third straight session of declines, as investors were on edge over the possible entry of the US into the Israel-Iran conflict. The air war between the two countries has now entered its seventh day, with President Donald Trump kept the world guessing about whether the US will join Israel's bombardment of Iranian nuclear sites. On the domestic front, fresh data showed New Zealand's economy grew by 0.8% in the March quarter, slightly above the forecasted 0.7% rise and following a revised 0.5% expansion in the previous quarter. The data suggests a firming economic recovery and reinforced the case against a rate cut in July. Among large-cap stocks, notable losses were seen from Infratil (-1%), Mainfreight (-3.3%), Contact Energy (-1%), and Spark NZ (-1.1%).

周四，新西兰元跌至0.599美元左右，触及两周低点，尽管数据显示经济增长快于预期。新西兰3月季度的国内生产总值增长了0.8%，超过了0.7%的增长预测，并在上一季度下调了0.5%。每年，国内生产总值下降0.7%，略好于估计的0.8%的下降。这些数据支持了储备银行将在7月份保持利率稳定的预期。新西兰储备银行最近表示，其宽松周期可能即将结束，市场预计今年晚些时候只会最后一次降息。从外部来看，新西兰元面临着美元升值的压力，在美联储保持利率不变并暗示未来降息步伐放缓后，美元升值。美联储主席鲍威尔也采取了谨慎的语气，警告称，由于特朗普总统的关税，通货膨胀可能会上升。地缘政治紧张局势也产生了影响，投资者正在权衡美国干预伊朗-以色列冲突的风险。

The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.599 on Thursday, hitting over two-week lows even as data showed the economy grew faster-than-expected. New Zealand’s GDP rose by 0.8% in the March quarter, beating forecasts of a 0.7% growth and following a downwardly revised 0.5% increase in the prior quarter. Annually, GDP fell by 0.7%, slightly better than the estimated 0.8% drop. The data supports expectations that the Reserve Bank will hold rates steady in July. The RBNZ has recently signaled it may be nearing the end of its easing cycle, with markets pricing in just one final rate cut later this year. Externally, the kiwi faced pressure from a rising US dollar, which gained after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and signaled a slower pace of future cuts. Fed Chair Powell also struck a cautious tone, warning that inflation could rise due to President Trump’s tariffs. Geopolitical tensions also weighed, with investors weighing the risk of US intervention in the Iran-Israel conflict.

新西兰经济在2025年第一季度同比收缩0.7%，略好于市场预期的0.8%的下降，此前一季度下降了1.3%。年度经济衰退主要是由于商品生产行业收缩3.1%造成的，尽管这标志着与第四季度5.6%的下降相比有所改善。服务业停滞不前，在上一季度温和增长0.1%后没有增长，而第一产业增长了1.7%，略高于此前的1.5%。尽管年度疲软，但经济表现出季度弹性，第一季度GDP增长0.8%，高于第四季度的0.5%。这标志着连续第二个季度实现季度增长，表明经济正在逐步复苏。

New Zealand’s economy contracted by 0.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, slightly better than market expectations of a 0.8% decline, following a 1.3% drop in the previous quarter. The annual downturn was mainly driven by a 3.1% contraction in goods-producing industries, though this marked an improvement from the 5.6% decline recorded in Q4. Service industries stagnated, posting no growth after a modest 0.1% rise in the prior quarter, while primary industries expanded by 1.7%, slightly up from 1.5% previously. Despite the annual weakness, the economy showed resilience on a quarterly basis, with GDP growing 0.8% in Q1, up from 0.5% in Q4. This marked the second straight quarter of quarterly growth, suggesting a gradual recovery is underway.

新西兰经济在2025年第一季度环比增长0.8%，高于上一季度的0.5%，略高于0.7%的市场预期。这标志着在经历了两个季度的收缩之后，连续第二个季度实现增长。所有三个主要行业的经济活动都有所增长，其中制造业增长最为强劲（第四季度为+2.4%对+0.1%），其次是专业、科学、技术、行政和支持服务业（+2.4%对比-0.1%），以及农业、林业和渔业（+0.8%，不变）。建筑业在上一季度下跌3.6%后反弹0.5%，而采矿业在下跌-1%后也恢复了+1%的增长。然而，一些行业出现了下降，包括艺术和娱乐服务（-1.9%对+1.3%）以及信息、媒体和电信（-0.8%对-2.9%）。按年度计算，第一季度GDP收缩0.7%，第四季度下降1.3%。

New Zealand’s economy expanded by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2025, accelerating from 0.5% growth in the previous period and slightly beating market expectations of 0.7%. This marked the second consecutive quarter of growth following two quarters of contraction. Economic activity increased across all three major industry groups, with the strongest gains seen in manufacturing (+2.4% vs. +0.1% in Q4), followed by professional, scientific, technical, administrative, and support services (+2.4% vs. -0.1%), and agriculture, forestry, and fishing (+0.8%, unchanged). Construction rebounded with a 0.5% gain after a 3.6% drop in the previous quarter, while mining also returned to growth at +1% following a -1% decline. However, some sectors posted declines, including arts and recreation services (-1.9% vs. +1.3%) and information, media, and telecommunications (-0.8% vs. -2.9%). On an annual basis, GDP contracted by 0.7% in Q1, following a 1.3% decline in Q4.