澳新银行罗伊摩根消费者信心指数8月份下跌3点，至92点，为10个月来的最低水平。未来状况指数下跌2点，至98.8，而当前状况指数下跌3点，至81.8。家庭对个人财务的看法进一步减弱，下降3个百分点至-24%，12%的受访者表示现在不是购买主要家居用品的好时机，下降4个百分点，这表明零售商面临压力。经济展望指标也有所下降，12个月展望下降4个点至-20%，5年展望下降4点至+3。未来两年CPI通胀预期从5.1%降至4.8%，而房价预期稳定在3.5%。尽管出现了这些下降，但较低的实际利率和新西兰储备银行的鸽派转向提供了一些支持，尽管消费者信心和零售支出在短期内可能仍然疲软。

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index fell 3 points to 92 in August, its lowest level in 10 months. The future conditions index dropped 2 points to 98.8, while the current conditions index fell 3 points to 81.8. Household perceptions of personal finances weakened further, slipping 3 points to -24%, and a net 12% of respondents said it was a bad time to buy a major household item, down 4 points, signaling pressure on retailers. Economic outlook measures also declined, with the 12-month view falling 4 points to -20% and the five-year outlook down 4 points to +3. Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations eased from 5.1% to 4.8%, while house price expectations held steady at 3.5%. Despite these declines, lower real interest rates and the RBNZ’s dovish pivot provide some support, though consumer sentiment and retail spending may remain subdued in the near term.

新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周四收于12903点，上涨0.3%，结束了连续两天的下跌，并追随华尔街的隔夜涨幅。在纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯表示有可能降息后，市场情绪进一步受到9月份美联储降息预期上升的支撑。在当地，令人鼓舞的国内数据提振了信心。澳新银行的一项调查显示，8月份新西兰商业信心有所改善，随着通胀压力的缓解，企业预计未来情况会更好。在企业方面，公用事业部门领涨，所有参与者都有所上涨：Meridian Energy（+3.5%）、Contact Energy（+1.9%）、Mercury NZ（+0.15%）、Vector（+1.6%）和Genesis Energy（1.7%）。在其他权重股中，a2 Milk（+3.5%）和Spark NZ（+1.2%）也上涨。其他主要推动者包括Fletcher Building（+1.3%）、Summerset Group（+1.1%）、新西兰航空（+1.7%）和Kiwi Property（+1.5%）。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index closed 0.3% higher at 12,903 on Thursday, ending a two-day losing streak and tracking Wall Street’s overnight gains. Market sentiment was further supported by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, after New York Fed President John Williams signaled that a reduction was possible. Locally, confidence was lifted by encouraging domestic data. An ANZ Bank survey showed that New Zealand business confidence improved in August, with firms anticipating better conditions ahead as inflationary pressures ease. On the corporate front, the utility sector led the advance, with all players posting gains: Meridian Energy (+3.5%), Contact Energy (+1.9%), Mercury NZ (+0.15%), Vector (+1.6%), and Genesis Energy (1.7%). Among other heavyweights, a2 Milk (+3.5%) and Spark NZ (+1.2%) also climbed. Other key movers included Fletcher Building (+1.3%), Summerset Group (+1.1%), Air New Zealand (+1.7%), and Kiwi Property (+1.5%).

第一印象：2025年8月新西兰商业信心。8月份的调查显示，乐观情绪基本保持不变，当前形势仍然困难，通胀压力略有缓解。

First Impressions: NZ business confidence, August 2025.The August survey pointed to broadly unchanged levels of optimism, still difficult current conditions, and a slight easing of inflation pressures.

周四，新西兰元在0.585美元左右徘徊，交易区间狭窄，因为该货币在美元走软的支撑和国内进一步货币宽松预期的压力之间徘徊。在纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示有可能降息后，对9月降息的押注越来越多，美元走弱。在唐纳德·特朗普总统周一试图罢免州长丽莎·库克后，对美联储独立性的担忧也给美元带来了压力。在国内，新西兰储备银行上周降低了现金利率，并为进一步宽松政策敞开了大门，以重振陷入困境的经济并保护其免受外部风险。在数据方面，澳新银行的一项调查显示，8月份新西兰商业信心有所改善，随着通胀压力的缓解，企业预计未来情况会更好。

The New Zealand dollar hovered around $0.585 on Thursday, trading in a narrow range as the currency was caught between support from a softer US dollar and pressure from expectations of further monetary easing at home. The greenback weakened amid growing bets on a September rate cut after New York Fed President John Williams signaled that a reduction was possible. Concerns over the Fed’s independence also weighed on the US dollar after President Donald Trump on Monday attempted to remove Governor Lisa Cook. Domestically, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its cash rate last week and left the door open to further easing in an effort to revive a struggling economy and shield it from external risks. On the data front, an ANZ Bank survey showed that New Zealand business confidence improved in August, with firms anticipating better conditions ahead as inflationary pressures ease.