RBNZ的Conway：关税影响为新西兰通胀降温。新西兰储备银行首席经济学家Paul Conway今天表示，全球关税的上升和经济的不确定性可能会“减轻新西兰的中期通胀压力”，并拖累该国经济反弹至2026年中期。尽管美国面临着关税引发的供应链中断带来的成本上升，但Conway表示，由于全球经济增长放缓和进口价格下跌，新西兰更有可能经历通货紧缩。

RBNZ's Conway: Tariff fallout to cool NZ inflation.Speaking today, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said rising global tariffs and economic uncertainty are likely to “reduce medium-term inflation pressures” in New Zealand, and drag on the country's economic rebound through mid-2026. While the US faces rising costs from tariff-induced supply chain disruptions, Conway said New Zealand is more likely to experience disinflation due to lower global growth and falling import prices.

新西兰股市周四早盘微涨12点，涨幅0.1%，至12806点，在前两个交易日下跌后试图上涨。在与日本达成类似协议后，美国和欧盟达成贸易协议，新西兰元50指数隔夜追随华尔街反弹。这一结果增加了与新西兰最大贸易伙伴中国达成更详细贸易协议的希望。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特否认特朗普将取代鲍威尔，这也增强了市场情绪。然而，在新西兰储备银行首席经济学家Paul Conway发表演讲之前，人们越来越谨慎，这可能会在周一的通胀数据和美国新关税对通胀的影响之后指导8月份的货币政策决定。通信服务、金融和非必需消费品主要推动该指数上涨，Skellerup（1.5%）、新西兰南港（1.0%）、萨默塞特集团（1.0%）和特纳汽车集团（0.9%）涨幅显著。

Equities in New Zealand edged up 12 points, or 0.1%, to 12,806 in morning trade on Thursday, attempting to rise after falling in the previous two sessions. The NZX 50 tracked a rally on Wall Street overnight following trade deals between the US and the EU, which came after a similar agreement with Japan. The result raised hopes of a further detailed trade agreement with China, New Zealand's top trading partner. US Treasury SecretaryScott Bessent’s denial that Trump would replace Powell also strengthened market sentiment. However, caution was building ahead of a speech by Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway, which could guide the monetary policy decision in August after Monday’s inflation data and the impact of new US tariffs on inflation. Communication services, financials, and consumer discretionary mainly drove the index, with notable gains from Skellerup (1.5%), South Port of New Zealand (1.0%), Summerset Group (1.0%), and Turners Automotive Group (0.9%).

新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周三下跌0.3%，收于12794点，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，尽管美国贸易谈判取得了积极进展。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周二宣布了与日本的一项贸易协议，根据该协议，东京将对向美国出口的商品降低15%的关税，此前与菲律宾达成的另一项协议规定，该国的出口商品将面临19%的关税。与此同时，国内投资者将密切关注新西兰储备银行首席经济学家Paul Conway周四的演讲，该演讲将讨论关税对经济的影响，并可能为8月份降息的可能性提供进一步线索。在企业方面，Infratil（-2.45%）、Spark NZ（-1.2%）、Fletcher Building（-1.6%）和Ryman Healthcare（-1.6%。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index dropped 0.3% to close at 12,794 on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session despite positive developments in US trade negotiations. President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced a trade agreement with Japan that will see Tokyo pay a reduced 15% tariff on exports to the US, following a separate deal with the Philippines under which the country’s exports will face a 19% tariff. Meanwhile, domestic investors will be closely watching a speech by Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway on Thursday, which will address the economic impact of tariffs and could offer further clues on the likelihood of a rate cut in August. On the corporate front, Infratil (-2.45%), Spark NZ (-1.2%), Fletcher Building (-1.6%), and Ryman Healthcare (-1.6%) were among the session’s biggest decliners.

周三，在唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布与日本达成贸易协议，缓解关税战担忧后，新西兰元兑美元汇率突破0.60美元，连续第四个交易日上涨。该协议包括对所有进口的日本商品征收15%的关税，低于拟议的25%，日本将在美国投资5500亿美元。在国内，本周早些时候公布的数据显示，新西兰第二季度的年通胀率升至一年来的最高点，但略低于预期，而6月份的贸易顺差大幅收窄，强化了下个月降息的预期。市场目前预计，8月份降息25个基点的可能性为80%，尽管投资者认为宽松周期可能即将结束。交易员们将密切关注新西兰储备银行首席经济学家Paul Conway周四关于关税对经济影响的演讲，这可能会进一步了解8月份降息的可能性。

The New Zealand dollar strengthened past $0.60 on Wednesday, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains, after President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Japan, easing tariff war concerns. The agreement includes a 15% tariff on all imported Japanese goods, down from a proposed 25%, and Japan will invest $550 billion in the US. Domestically, data released earlier this week showed New Zealand's annual inflation rose to a one-year high in the second quarter but was slightly below forecasts, while the trade surplus narrowed sharply in June—reinforcing expectations of a rate cut next month. Markets now price in an 80% chance of a 25bps cut in August, though investors believe the easing cycle may be nearing its end. Traders will be closely watching RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway’s speech on the economic impact of tariffs on Thursday, which could offer further insight into the likelihood of an August rate cut.