鲍威尔演讲后新西兰元飙升，新西兰零售额超预期。周一，新西兰元已经企稳。在欧洲市场，新西兰元/美元交易价格为0.562，当日下跌0.07%。

New Zealand Dollar Flies After Powell Speech, NZ Retail Sales Beat Forecast.The New Zealand dollar has steadied on Monday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.562, down 0.07% on the day.

新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周一上涨0.3%，至13080点，连续第四个交易日上涨，收盘接近八个月高点。这一上涨反映出，在美联储主席鲍威尔强调美国劳动力市场下行风险上升，为未来降息敞开大门后，风险情绪有所改善。在国内，总理克里斯托弗·卢克森批评储备银行在上周将关键利率下调25个基点后，没有大幅降息以刺激经济增长。截至6月的三个月里，零售额环比增长0.5%，较第一季度的0.8%有所放缓，但超过了0.2%的预期，这表明较低的利率开始支持经济活动。在整个交易所，通信、科技和非能源矿产板块领涨，其中Chorus（+2.3%）、Gentrack（+3.7%）、Eroad（+4.3%），Fletcher（+1.3%）和Santana（+2.3%.）表现突出。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index grew 0.3% to 13,080 on Monday, rising for a fourth consecutive session and closing near an eight-month high. The advance reflected improved risk sentiment after Federal Reserve Chair Powell highlighted rising downside risks to the US labor market, leaving the door open for future rate cuts. Domestically, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon criticized the Reserve Bank for not cutting rates aggressively enough to stimulate growth, following last week’s 25bps reduction to the key rate. Retail sales rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June, slowing from a 0.8% gain in Q1 but surpassing forecasts of 0.2%, suggesting that lower interest rates are beginning to support activity. Across the bourse, communications, technology, and non-energy mineral sectors led gains, with notable performances from Chorus (+2.3%), Gentrack (+3.7%), Eroad (+4.3%), Fletcher (+1.3%), and Santana (+2.3%).

周一，新西兰元跌至0.586美元左右，在上一交易日从四个月低点反弹后步履蹒跚，受到鸽派储备银行前景的压力。上周，新西兰储备银行将官方现金利率下调25个基点，至3%的三年低点，并表示将进一步放松以支持陷入困境的经济。首相克里斯托弗·卢克森的回应是批评央行没有大幅降息以刺激经济增长。在数据方面，截至6月的三个月里，零售额环比增长0.5%，较第一季度的0.8%有所放缓，但超过了0.2%的预期，这表明较低的利率开始有助于经济活动。与此同时，新西兰元上周获得支撑，从4月11日以来的最低水平反弹，因为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔指出劳动力市场下行风险上升，暗示未来有可能降息，导致美元走软。

The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.586 on Monday, faltering after rebounding from a four-month low in the last session, pressured by a dovish Reserve Bank outlook. Last week, the RBNZ lowered the official cash rate by 25 basis points to a three-year low of 3% and signaled further easing to support the struggling economy. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon responded by criticizing the central bank for not cutting rates aggressively enough to stimulate growth. On the data front, retail sales rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June, slowing from a 0.8% gain in Q1 but exceeding forecasts of 0.2%, suggesting that lower interest rates are beginning to help activity. Meanwhile, the kiwi found support last week, rebounding from its lowest level since April 11, as the US dollar softened following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s noting on rising downside risks to the labor market, suggesting the possibility of future rate cuts.

第一印象：新西兰零售业，2025年6月季度。6月季度零售支出水平上涨0.5%，超出预期。零售业形势依然严峻，但我们开始看到期待已久的复苏迹象正在形成。

First Impressions: NZ retail Trade, June Quarter 2025.Retail spending levels rose 0.5% in the June quarter, beating expectations. Retail sector conditions remain tough, but we are starting to see signs of the long-awaited recovery taking shape.