周二，新西兰元微跌至0.584美元左右，暂停了最近的涨幅，因为投资者预计储备银行将采取更宽松的货币政策。市场已经完全消化了周三降息25个基点的影响，越来越多的人押注将降息50个基点。疲软的商业情绪调查表明，经济可能在第三季度再次收缩，增加了再次衰退的风险，这增强了人们对进一步宽松政策的预期。悲观的数据也引发了人们的猜测，即新西兰储备银行可能会在未来几个月采取更多、更激进的宽松政策来支持经济增长。由于华盛顿的政治僵局持续存在，政府停摆持续，美元继续恢复一些强势，加剧了新西兰的疲软。

The New Zealand dollar edged lower to around $0.584 on Tuesday, pausing its recent gains as investors anticipated a looser monetary stance from the Reserve Bank. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, with growing bets on a larger 50-basis-point reduction. Expectations for deeper easing were reinforced by a weak business sentiment survey suggesting the economy may have contracted again in the third quarter, raising the risk of a renewed recession. The downbeat data also fueled speculation that the RBNZ could pursue additional and more aggressive policy easing in the coming months to support growth. Adding to the Kiwi’s weakness, the US dollar continued to regain some strength as political gridlock in Washington persisted and the government shutdown dragged on.

尽管有通胀回升的迹象，但NZIER预计新西兰储备银行将再降息两次。尽管第三季度通胀压力略有上升，但新西兰经济研究所在10月和11月的会议上维持了对新西兰储备银行再降息25个基点的预测。

NZIER sees two more RBNZ cuts despite signs of inflation pick-up.The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research maintained its forecast for two additional 25bps cuts by the RBNZ at the October and November meetings, despite a mild uptick in inflation pressures during Q3.

新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）周二表示，将成立一个新的金融政策委员会，该委员会将有权为银行制定审慎要求，并协助就抵押贷款比率做出决定。新西兰储备银行在一份声明中表示，此举符合最近议会对银行业竞争的调查建议，旨在加强央行的金融政策制定。该委员会将由新西兰储备银行主席、行长、其他三名董事会成员以及最多两名既不是董事会成员也不是央行雇员的个人组成。预计将于2026年初投入使用。8月，新西兰储备银行提议放宽贷款人的资本要求，此前有人批评现行法规限制了经济中的资金可用性，增加了借款人的成本。

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said on Tuesday it would establish a new financial policy committee, which would have the authority to set prudential requirements for banks and assist in making decisions on mortgage lending ratios. The move aligns with recommendations from a recent parliamentary inquiry into banking competition and is intended to strengthen the central bank’s financial policy-making, the RBNZ said in a statement. The committee will comprise the RBNZ chair, its governor, three other board members, and up to two individuals who are neither board members nor employees of the central bank. It is expected to become operational in early 2026. In August, the RBNZ proposed easing lenders’ capital requirements, following criticism that the existing regulations had restricted the availability of funds in the economy and increased costs for borrowers.

新西兰股市周二早盘几乎没有变化，在前一交易日小幅下跌后徘徊在13500点附近。耐用消费品和医疗保健的上涨帮助抵消了公用事业和非耐用消费品的下跌。投资者正关注新西兰储备银行本周晚些时候的利率决定，预计将进一步降息，尽管在经济势头疲软和12月即将到来的领导层换届之际，降息幅度仍然是人们关注的焦点。当地数据显示，第三季度商业情绪略有下降，而产能利用率几乎停滞不前。在美国，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数周一收于历史高点后，股指期货小幅下跌，交易员对政府长期停摆的担忧不以为然。在早盘股中，Ryman Healthcare上涨1.9%，紧随其后的是Turner Automotive（1.6%）、Vector有限公司（1.4%）和Scott Tech（1.3%）。下跌方面，T&G Global有限公司（-2.4%）、Hallenstein Glasson（-1.9%）和Meridian Energy（-1.2%）大幅下跌。

New Zealand shares were little changed on Tuesday morning session, hovering near 13,500 after a modest dip in the previous session. Gains in consumer durables and healthcare helped offset declines in utilities and consumer non-durables. Investors are eyeing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision later this week, with expectations of a further cut, though the magnitude remains in focus amid soft economic momentum and an upcoming leadership transition in December. Local data showed a slight drop in Q3 business mood, while capacity utilization almost stagnated. In the U.S., stock futures edged lower after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs Monday, as traders shrugged off concerns over the prolonged government shutdown. Among early movers, Ryman Healthcare rose 1.9%, followed by Turner Automotive (1.6%), Vector Ltd. (1.4%), and Scott Tech. (1.3%). On the downside, T&G Global Ltd. (-2.4%), Hallenstein Glasson (-1.9%), and Meridian Energy (-1.2%) posted marked losses.