周一，新西兰元在0.583美元附近持平，投资者期待着储备银行本周的政策决定。在一系列疲软的经济数据公布后，预计央行将于周三将其官方现金利率从3%下调，市场完全预计将下调25个基点，并有30%的机会进一步上调50个基点。经济学家认为这是一种温和的转变，预示着未来进一步宽松的可能性。与此同时，鸽派前景的下行压力可能有限，因为随着人们对政府持续停摆的经济影响日益担忧，美元可能再次面临压力。最近的美国数据也增强了人们对美联储降息的预期，市场几乎完全预计本月将降息25个基点，12月将再次降息，这些事态发展最终可能会对美元造成压力。

The New Zealand dollar traded flat around $0.583 on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Reserve Bank’s policy decision this week. The central bank is anticipated to lower its official cash rate from 3% on Wednesday, with markets fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut and assigning about a 30% chance of a larger 50-basis-point move, following a series of weak economic data. Economists view this as a dovish shift, signaling the likelihood of further easing ahead. Meanwhile, downside pressure from the dovish outlook may be limited as the US dollar could come under renewed pressure amid growing concerns over the economic fallout from the ongoing government shutdown. Recent US data have also strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts, with markets nearly fully pricing in a quarter-point reduction this month and another in December — developments that could eventually weigh on the greenback.

周一早盘交易中，新西兰元50指数下跌17点，跌幅0.13%，至13497点，结束了五个交易日的涨幅，主要是工业服务和能源矿产的下跌。在新西兰储备银行本周晚些时候的政策决定之前，交易员变得谨慎。尽管市场普遍预计将再次降息，但在12月新行长上任之前，在经济增长疲软和政治压力下，人们的注意力集中在降息幅度上。白宫顾问凯文·哈塞特警告称，如果谈判陷入僵局，可能会开始裁员，随后基准指数也因对美国政府可能关门的担忧而追踪全球疲软。尽管如此，在美国财政部长贝森特表示对美国和新西兰最大贸易伙伴中国即将举行的贸易谈判取得“相当大的突破”持乐观态度后，损失得到了限制。主要落后者包括天空电视网（-2.1%）、旅游控股公司（-1.8%）、奥克兰国际机场（-1.4%）和新西兰南港（-1.1%）。

The NZX 50 fell 17 points, or 0.13%, to 13,497 on Monday morning deals, snapping a five-session gain amid losses mainly from industrial services and energy minerals. Traders turned cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy decision later this week. While markets widely expect another rate cut, focus is on the size of the reduction amid weak growth and political pressure, ahead of the new governor taking office in December. The benchmark index also tracked global weakness on concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, after White House adviser Kevin Hassett warned that layoffs could begin if negotiations stall. Still, losses were capped after U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled optimism for a “pretty big breakthrough” in upcoming trade talks between the U.S. and China, New Zealand's largest trading partner. Major laggards included Sky Network TV (-2.1%), Tourism Holdings (-1.8%), Auckland Intl. Airport (-1.4%), and South Port NZ (-1.1%).

新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周五上涨0.5%，收于13514点，连续第五个交易日上涨，医疗保健、消费服务、能源矿产和耐用消费品领涨。投资者的注意力现在转向新西兰储备银行下周的政策决定，市场普遍预计将降息25个基点至2.75%。在海外，交易员们正在权衡美国政府停摆可能持续多久，对经济数据发布的影响，以及这将如何影响美联储的决策过程。在企业方面，权重股斐雪派克（+1.3%）、Infratil（+2.4%）和Spark NZ（+1.3%.）均实现稳健增长。其他表现突出的公司包括SkyCity Entertainment（+6.7%）、Kiwi Property（+1.9%）和Channel Infrastructure（+1.5%）。本周，新西兰元50指数飙升3.1%，为2024年8月以来的最大单周涨幅。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.5% to close at 13,514 on Friday, extending its winning streak to a fifth straight session, led by strength in healthcare, consumer services, energy minerals, and consumer durables. Investor attention is now turning to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy decision next week, with markets largely expecting a quarter-point rate cut to 2.75%. Overseas, traders are weighing how long the US government shutdown might last, its impact on economic data releases, and how that will influence the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process. On the corporate front, heavyweights Fisher & Paykel (+1.3%), Infratil (+2.4%), and Spark NZ (+1.3%) posted solid gains. Other standout performers included SkyCity Entertainment (+6.7%), Kiwi Property (+1.9%), and Channel Infrastructure (+1.5%). For the week, the NZX 50 surged 3.1%, its biggest weekly gain since August 2024.

周五，由于经济不确定性和对美国降息的押注不断增加，新西兰元保持近期上涨至0.582美元左右，继续对美元构成压力。财政部长斯科特·贝森特周四表示，政府停摆可能会损害美国经济增长，并影响美国工人。此外，美国劳动力市场疲软的迹象增强了人们对美联储将在今年剩下的两次会议上降息的预期。新西兰元也受益于对澳元空头头寸的获利回吐，澳元已连续八周攀升至三年高点。然而，在国内，由于一系列疲软的经济数据导致交易员对新西兰储备银行的进一步宽松政策进行定价，该货币仍面临压力。市场完全消化了下周降息25个基点至2.75%的预期，有44%的可能性出现更大的0.5个基点的跌幅。本周，新西兰元迄今已上涨约0.8%，有望打破两周的连跌。

The New Zealand dollar held its recent advance to around $0.582 on Friday, as economic uncertainty and growing bets on US rate cuts continued to weigh on the greenback. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday the government shutdown could hurt US economic growth and impact American workers. Also, signs of weakness in the US labor market have reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its two remaining meetings this year. The kiwi also benefited from profit-taking on short positions against the Australian dollar, which had climbed for eight consecutive weeks to reach a three-year high. Domestically, however, the currency remains under pressure after a run of weak economic data has led traders to price in deeper easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Markets are fully priced for a quarter-point cut to 2.75% next week, with a 44% chance of a larger half-point move. For the week, the kiwi is up about 0.8% so far, on track to snap a two-week losing streak.