周一，新西兰元徘徊在0.585美元左右，连续三天跌至两周多来的最低水平，受对储备银行的温和预期拖累。上周的数据显示，第二季度经济收缩幅度超过预期，而贸易逆差高于预期，导致市场完全消化了10月份降息25个基点的预期，并认为有25%的可能性出现更大幅度的50个基点。雪上加霜的是，在美联储主席鲍威尔指出通胀风险仍然向上倾斜并将最近的降息描述为风险管理措施后，美元上涨。投资者现在正在等待美联储官员的新信号和本周晚些时候的一份关键的美国通胀报告。与此同时，尽管经济数据显示经济放缓加剧，但中国人民银行决定保持贷款最优惠利率稳定，对中国需求没有新的提振作用，市场情绪几乎没有变化。由于紧密的贸易联系，新西兰元仍与中国经济信号密切相关。

The New Zealand dollar hovered around $0.585 on Monday, holding a three-day slide to its lowest level in over two weeks, weighed down by dovish expectations for the Reserve Bank. Data last week showed the economy contracted more than expected in Q2, while the trade deficit came in above forecasts, leading markets to fully price in a 25bps rate cut in October and assign about a 25% chance of a larger 50bps move. Adding to the pressure, the US dollar rose after Fed Chair Powell noted that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside and described the recent rate cut as a risk management step. Investors now await fresh signals from Fed officials and a key US inflation report later this week. Meanwhile, sentiment was little changed by the PBOC’s decision to leave loan prime rates steady, providing no fresh boost to Chinese demand, even as economic data suggest a deepening slowdown. The Kiwi remains closely tied to Chinese economic signals due to strong trade linkages.

新西兰元50指数在周一早盘小幅下跌至13220左右，扭转了前一交易日的显著涨幅，因为周五华尔街标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数创下新纪录后，美国期货走软，这得益于特朗普总统与新西兰最大贸易伙伴中国TikTok的交易。在中国央行于今天晚些时候对关键贷款利率进行审查之前，市场普遍持谨慎态度。此前，截至8月，贷款最优惠利率已连续三个月创下历史新低。在国内，第二季度数据显示，新西兰经济季度环比收缩0.9%，扭转了两个季度的增长，低于0.2%的下降预测。制造业、建筑业和出口疲软，再加上技术性GDP调整，导致经济衰退。与此同时，年度国内生产总值下降了0.6%，打破了平稳增长的预期。商业服务、医疗保健和电子技术行业领跌，其中Eroad（-2.1%）、Fisher&Paykel healthcare（-1.6%）、Infratil（-1.1%）和Winton Land（-0.9%）的跌幅显著。

The NZX 50 edged lower to around 13,220 in Monday’s morning session, reversing notable gains in the prior session as U.S. futures softened after Wall Street's S&P 500 and Dow hit fresh records Friday, buoyed by President Trump’s TikTok deal with China—New Zealand’s top trading partner. Market caution prevailed ahead of China’s central bank key lending rate review later today, following three straight months of record-low loan prime rates through August. At home, Q2 data showed New Zealand’s economy contracted 0.9% qoq, reversing two quarters of growth and missing forecasts for a 0.2% decline. The downturn was driven by weakness in manufacturing, construction, and exports, compounded by technical GDP adjustments. Meantime, the annual GDP fell 0.6%, defying expectations for flat growth. Commercial services, healthcare, and electronic tech sectors led the declines, with notable losses from Eroad (-2.1%), Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (-1.6%), Infratil (-1.1%), and Winton Land (-0.9%).

新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周五上涨0.85%，收于13232点，从两天的下跌中恢复过来，因为医疗保健和运输股的强势提振了市场。该指数紧随华尔街的强劲领先之后，在美联储降息一天后，华尔街股市上涨，而芯片制造商英特尔在英伟达宣布将入股其竞争对手后飙升。在国内，新西兰经济意外急剧收缩，导致交易员预计储备银行将进一步降息，一些人甚至预计10月份将进一步降息0.5个百分点。在企业方面，医疗器械制造商斐雪派克（Fisher&Paykel）股价上涨2.2%，而制药供应商埃伯斯集团（Ebos Group）股价上涨4.3%。养老服务提供商萨默塞特集团和大洋洲也分别上涨2.1%和1.5%。在交通领域，奥克兰国际机场上涨1.95%，Mainfreight上涨2.5%，Freightways上涨4.6%。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.85% to close at 13,232 on Friday, recovering from a two-day slide as strength in healthcare and transportation stocks lifted the market. The index followed a strong lead from Wall Street, where equities rallied a day after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates, while chipmaker Intel surged on Nvidia’s announcement that it would take a stake in its rival. At home, a surprisingly steep contraction in New Zealand’s economy led traders to price in further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank, with some even anticipating a larger half-point cut in October. On the corporate front, shares of medical device maker Fisher & Paykel rose 2.2%, while pharmaceutical supplier Ebos Group climbed 4.3%. Aged-care providers Summerset Group and Oceania also gained 2.1% and 1.5%, respectively. In the transportation sector, Auckland Intl Airport advanced 1.95%, Mainfreight added 2.5%, and Freightways jumped 4.6%.

新西兰财政部长将在未来几周任命一位新的央行行长，在储备银行行长和董事长突然离职后，这增加了人们对稳定的希望。这位即将上任的领导人将面临在经济严重衰退和政治压力日益增加的情况下恢复该行信誉的挑战。临时行长克里斯蒂安·霍克斯比本月表示：“我们面临着对我们作为一个组织的信任和信心的考验。”他强调，该行仍然专注于“在中期内实现低而稳定的通胀，以及一个有弹性和有利的金融体系。”霍克斯比希望永久担任这一职务，因为这场争议还迫使新西兰储备银行主席尼尔·奎格利辞职，而奎格利在财政部长尼古拉·威利斯要求他下台之前辞职。

New Zealand’s finance minister is set to name a new central bank chief in the coming weeks, raising hopes for stability after the sudden departures of both the Reserve Bank’s governor and chairman. The incoming leader will face the challenge of restoring the bank’s credibility amid a deep economic downturn and growing political pressure. “We face a test of trust and confidence in us as an organisation,” interim Governor Christian Hawkesby said this month, stressing the bank remains focused on “delivering low and stable inflation in the medium term, and a resilient and enabling financial system.” Hawkesby, who wants the role permanently, has led since the controversy also forced out RBNZ chair Neil Quigley, who resigned before Finance Minister Nicola Willis could ask him to step down.