新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周四下跌0.8%，收于13120点，为两周来的最低水平，此前数据显示经济萎缩幅度超过预期。6月季度国内生产总值下降0.9%，高于市场预测的0.3%的跌幅，此前一季度修正后增长0.9%，主要受制造业、建筑业和出口疲软的拖累。自美国对新西兰商品征收关税以来，经济受到了进一步的伤害，这引发了人们对外部需求和贸易竞争力的担忧。对外方面，美联储周三如预期般降息，并表示将采取审慎的措施进一步放松货币政策。在企业方面，权重股Meridian Energy（-1.05%）、奥克兰国际机场（-1.0%）、Infratil（-3.1%）、新西兰水星（-1.8%）和a2 Milk（-2.6%）均大幅下跌。其他主要输家包括Ryman（-2.0%）、Kiwi Property（-2.8%）、渠道基础设施（-2.%）和Vista Group（-1.6%）。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index dropped 0.8% to close at 13,120 on Thursday, its lowest in two weeks, after data showed the economy shrank more than expected. Gross domestic product fell 0.9% in the June quarter, more than market forecasts of a 0.3% decline, following a revised 0.9% rise in the previous period, dragged mainly by weakness in manufacturing, construction, and exports. The economy has been further hurt since the US imposed tariffs on New Zealand goods, which raised concerns about external demand and trade competitiveness. Externally, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected on Wednesday and signaled a measured approach to further monetary policy easing. On the corporate front, heavyweights Meridian Energy (-1.05%), Auckland Intl Airport (-1.0%), Infratil (-3.1%), Mercury NZ (-1.8%), and a2 Milk (-2.6%) posted significant declines. Other major losers included Ryman (-2.0%), Kiwi Property (-2.8%), Channel Infrastructure (-2.0%), and Vista Group (-1.6%).

新西兰经济萎缩0.9%，新西兰元因押注新西兰储备银行下一次降息50个基点而暴跌。新西兰第二季度经济收缩远超预期，国内生产总值环比下降0.9%，而普遍预测为环比下降0.3%。该消息证实了经济衰退的加剧，过去五个季度中有三个季度的经济活动有所下降。

NZ economy shrinks -0.9%, Kiwi dives on bets of 50bps RBNZ cut next.New Zealand's economy contracted far more than expected in Q2, with GDP falling -0.9% qoq against consensus forecasts of -0.3% qoq. The release confirmed a deeper downturn, with economic activity now having declined in three of the last five quarters.

新西兰：OCR电话变更——新西兰储备银行10月降息50个基点。我们现在认为，新西兰储备银行将在10月和11月分别降息50个基点和25个基点（此前我们预计在这两次会议上都会降息25个基点）。这一变化是在第二季度GDP增长低于预期之后发生的。

NZ: Change of OCR call – RBNZ to cut 50bp in October.We now think the RBNZ will cut 50bp in October and 25bp in November (previously we expected 25bp cuts at both of those meetings). This change follows weaker than expected GDP growth in Q2.

第一印象：新西兰国内生产总值，2025年6月季度——甚至低于预期。新西兰6月季度国内生产总值下降0.9%，远低于预期。意外仅集中在不太可能对进一步降息做出反应的领域。

First Impressions: NZ GDP, June Quarter 2025 – Even Weaker than Expected.New Zealand's GDP fell by 0.9% in the June quarter, substantially worse than expected. The surprises were narrowly concentrated in areas that are unlikely to respond to further interest rate cuts.