新西兰元在前一交易日上涨1%后回落至0.63美元左右，因为投资者现在正在等待当天晚些时候的美国个人消费支出通胀报告，这可能会为美联储降息的步伐提供更多线索。在国内，新西兰元面临下行压力，因为人们预计新西兰储备银行将在10月再次降息，市场预计降息0.5个百分点的可能性为67%。投资者目前预计，到2025年底，5.25%的现金利率将降至2.83%。在经济数据方面，澳新银行罗伊摩根调查显示，9月份消费者信心连续第三个月上升，达到32个月来的最高水平。

The New Zealand dollar eased to around $0.63 after climbing 1% in the previous session, as investors now await the US PCE inflation report later in the day, which could offer more clues on the pace of the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Domestically, the Kiwi faced downward pressure amid expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut rates again in October, with markets pricing in a 67% probability of a half-point reduction. Investors currently see the 5.25% cash rate to fall to 2.83% by the end of 2025. On the economic data front, the ANZ-Roy Morgan survey showed consumer confidence rose for the third straight month in September, hitting its highest level in 32 months.

周五早盘交易中，新西兰股市下跌16点，跌幅0.13%，至12476点，此前该股在5月底创下单日最大涨幅，受工业服务、非能源矿产和电子科技板块下跌的影响。该岛国9月份消费者情绪的最高水平几乎没有提振情绪，因为最新读数仍远低于100，表明家庭仍处于净悲观状态。与此同时，9月份的商业情绪数据将于下周公布，此前8月份的印刷量达到了十年来的最高水平。周四，华尔街标准普尔500指数创纪录的收盘高点限制了下跌，因为更强劲的美国经济数据支持了软着陆的乐观情绪。本周，市场在前一时期大幅下跌后保持平静，这得益于越来越多的人押注，在成本压力缓解和经济产出疲软的情况下，该国央行可能会在10月再次降息。

Shares in New Zealand fell 16 points or 0.13% to 12,476 in early deals on Friday after logging the biggest-one-day rise at the end of May, weighed by losses among industrial services, non-energy minerals, and electronic tech. The highest level of consumer mood in the island nation for September did little to uplift mood, as the latest reading remained well below 100, indicating still net pessimistic among households. Meanwhile, business sentiment data for September will be due next week after August print hit its highest level in a decade. A record-peak close on Wall Street's S&P 500 Thursday capped the decline, as stronger US economic data supported a soft landing optimism. For the week, markets were muted following a sharp drop in the prior period, helped by growing bets that the country's central bank could cut interest rates again in October amid easing cost pressure and weak economic output.

2024年9月，澳新银行罗伊摩根消费者信心指数连续第三个月上涨，从前一个月的92.2点升至95.1点。这是自2022年1月以来的最高读数，受对未来而非当前状况的乐观情绪推动。尽管有所改善，但信心仍然疲软，零售商可以证明这一点。尽管利率在下降，但大多数家庭都在办理固定利率抵押贷款，这意味着他们还没有感受到明显的缓解。由于失业率预计会上升，抵押贷款展期比澳大利亚等国家慢，尽管希望未来会更好，但家庭对当前仍持谨慎态度。

ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index in New Zealand advanced the third consecutive month to 95.1 points in September 2024 from 92.2 in the preceding month. It was the highest reading since January 2022, driven by optimism about the future rather than current conditions. Despite this improvement, confidence remains weak, as retailers can attest. Although interest rates are declining, most households are on fixed-rate mortgages, meaning they haven't yet felt significant relief. With unemployment expected to rise and mortgage rollover coming slower than in countries like Australia, households remain cautious about the present despite hope for better times ahead.

新西兰元上涨至0.628美元左右，收复了前一交易日的失地，美国科技股反弹和中国新一轮刺激措施推动风险资产反弹。与此同时，投资者现在期待着美国最终的GDP数据、每周的失业救济申请人数，以及当天晚些时候美联储主要官员的演讲，以更多地了解美国央行的货币政策立场。在国内，人们普遍预计新西兰储备银行将在10月再次降息，可能降息50个基点。市场预计，到明年年底，5.25%的现金利率将降至2.82%左右。

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.628, recovering losses from the previous session as a rebound in US tech shares and a new round of stimulus measures from China fueled a rally in risk assets. Meanwhile, investors now looked ahead to the final US GDP figures, weekly jobless claims, as well as speeches from key Federal Reserve officials later in the day for more insights into the US central bank’s monetary policy stance. Domestically, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to cut interest rates again in October, perhaps by 50 basis points. Markets see the 5.25% cash rate falling to around 2.82% by late next year.