第一印象：新西兰零售业，2025年6月季度。6月季度零售支出水平上涨0.5%，超出预期。零售业形势依然严峻，但我们开始看到期待已久的复苏迹象正在形成。

First Impressions: NZ retail Trade, June Quarter 2025.Retail spending levels rose 0.5% in the June quarter, beating expectations. Retail sector conditions remain tough, but we are starting to see signs of the long-awaited recovery taking shape.

新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）提议降低存款人的最低资本要求，并已开始协商。央行周一表示，一个关键的政策选择是将最低资本要求从3000万新西兰元降至500万新西兰元（293万美元）。据路透社报道，该声明称：“这减少了进入壁垒。”。咨询文件指出，监管的任何转变预计都不会导致重大的经济变化。目前不断上升的资本要求是在2019年宣布的，并且正在缓慢实施，预计在2028年之前不会全面实施。新西兰储备银行行长克里斯蒂安·霍克斯比表示：“我们必须取得适当的平衡——保护存款人和更广泛的经济，同时支持竞争和经济效率。”。

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is proposing to reduce the minimum capital requirement for deposit takers and has begun consultations. The central bank said on Monday that one key policy option is to lower the minimum capital requirement to NZ$5 million (US$2.93 million), down from NZ$30 million. This reduces barriers to entry,” the statement said, as reported by Reuters. It is noted in the consultation document that any shift in regulation is not expected to cause significant economic change. The current, rising capital requirements were announced in 2019 and are being brought in slowly, with full implementation not expected before 2028. “It’s essential we strike the right balance — protecting depositors and the wider economy, while supporting competition and economic efficiency,” said RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby.

截至2025年6月的三个月里，新西兰零售额环比增长0.5%，较第一季度0.8%的增长有所缓解，但超过了市场预期的0.2%的增长。经价格和季节性影响调整后，15个零售行业中有8个的销售额高于2025年3月的季度。最大的贡献来自电气和电子产品，增长了4.6%，其次是超市和杂货店，增长了1.3%，药品零售增长了1.2%。另一方面，服装、鞋类和个人配饰、住宿和燃料零售的跌幅最大。从地区角度来看，南岛的零售额增长了0.2%，而北岛的销售额下降了0.3%。按年度计算，第二季度零售总额增长2.3%，与第一季度0.7%的增长相比明显加速。

Retail sales in New Zealand rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June 2025, easing from a 0.8% increase in the first quarter but exceeding market expectations of a 0.2% gain. Adjusted for price and seasonal effects, 8 of the 15 retail industries recorded higher sales volumes compared with the March 2025 quarter. The largest contributions came from electrical and electronic goods, which jumped 4.6%, followed by supermarkets and grocery stores at 1.3%, and pharmaceutical retailing at 1.2%. On the other hand, clothing, footwear and personal accessories, accommodation, and fuel retailing posted the sharpest declines. From a regional perspective, retail sales in the South Island increased by 0.2%, while sales in the North Island fell 0.3%. On an annual basis, total retail sales climbed 2.3% in Q2, marking a notable acceleration from the 0.7% gain recorded in Q1.

新西兰总理克里斯托弗·卢克森批评储备银行没有大幅降低官方现金利率（OCR）以刺激经济。上周，央行将OCR下调25个基点至3%，货币政策委员会以4比2的微弱优势投票反对进一步下调50个基点。自去年8月以来，这一比例从5.5%逐渐下降。卢克森在接受当地媒体采访时表示，在经济停滞的情况下，董事会本应采取更果断的行动。6月份失业率上升至5.2%，有15.8万人失业，卢克森描述了“双速”复苏，城市地区落后于地区增长。卢克森指出，圣诞节前还有两项OCR审查，这意味着仍有可能采取进一步行动。

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has criticized the Reserve Bank for not cutting the Official Cash Rate (OCR) aggressively enough to stimulate the economy. Last week, the central bank reduced the OCR by 25bps to 3%, with the monetary policy committee narrowly voting 4-2 against a deeper 50bps cut. This follows a gradual decline from 5.5% since August last year. Speaking in an interview with local media, Luxon indicated that the board should have acted more decisively amid economic stagnation. Unemployment rose to 5.2% in June, with 158,000 people out of work, and Luxon described a “two-speed” recovery, where urban areas lag behind regional growth. Luxon noted that two more OCR reviews remain before Christmas, implying further action could still be taken.