Elliott Wave观点：美元兑日元目标完成7轮震荡反弹。美元兑日元表现出源自2025年4月22日低点的不完整看涨序列，预示着进一步上涨的潜力。我们可以预测这次反弹的极端目标区域，可以使用4月22日低点的100%至161.8%的斐波那契扩展来预测。

Elliott Wave Perspective: USDJPY Targets Completion of 7 Swing Rally.The USDJPY pair exhibits an incomplete bullish sequence originating from the April 22, 2025 low, signaling potential for further upside. We can project the extreme target area for this rally can be projected using using the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the April 22 low.

日经225指数上涨1.02%，收于41070点，而周四更广泛的东证指数上涨0.78%，收于2943点，弥补了本周早些时候日本央行一致决定维持利率不变后的损失，正如普遍预期的那样。这标志着日本央行在1月份加息25个基点至0.5%后连续第四次暂停会议。受科技巨头Meta Platforms和微软乐观盈利的支撑，日本股市也受到美国期货走强的暗示。与此同时，在美国与韩国敲定关税协议并对巴西和印度征收高额关税后，投资者继续关注贸易发展。指数权重股领涨，迪斯科上涨7%，藤仓上涨6.3%，三丽鸥上涨3.5%，Lasertec上涨3.8%，软银集团上涨3.1%。

The Nikkei 225 Index rose 1.02% to close at 41,070, while the broader Topix Index gained 0.78% to 2,943 on Thursday, recovering losses from earlier in the week after the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged in a unanimous decision, as widely expected. This marks the fourth consecutive meeting the BOJ has paused following its 25 basis-point hike to 0.5% in January. Japanese stocks also took cues from stronger US futures, supported by upbeat earnings from tech giants Meta Platforms and Microsoft. Meanwhile, investors continued to watch trade developments after the US finalized a tariff deal with South Korea and imposed steep levies on Brazil and India. Gains were led by index heavyweights, with Disco rising 7%, Fujikura 6.3%, Sanrio 3.5%, Lasertec 3.8%, and SoftBank Group 3.1%.

在东京，日经225指数周四上涨409点，涨幅1.01%。安斯泰来制药（6.79%）、古河电气（5.72%）和旭化成（4.34%）领涨。

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 Index gained 409 points or 1.01 percent on Thursday. Gains were led by Astellas Pharma (6.79%), Furukawa Electric (5.72%) and Asahi Kasei (4.34%).

2025年6月，日本房屋开工量同比下降15.6%，略好于市场预期的15.8%的下降，并从5月份的34.4%的暴跌中有所缓解，这是自2009年9月以来的最大跌幅。这标志着连续第三个月的下降，但也是最温和的，因为关键类别的收缩放缓：自有（-16.4%对-30.9%）、租赁（-14.0%对-30.5%）、待售建筑（-17.9%对-43.8%）和两套四居室（-5.7%对-26.4%）。另一方面，预制房屋开工量略有下降（-9.6%对-9.3%），而已发行单元的增长从5月份的76.7%急剧放缓至10.2%。

Japan’s housing starts fell 15.6% year-on-year in June 2025, slightly better than market expectations of a 15.8% drop and easing from May’s sharp 34.4% plunge—the steepest since September 2009. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline but the mildest in the sequence, as contractions slowed across key categories: owned (-16.4% vs -30.9%), rented (-14.0% vs -30.5%), built-for-sale (-17.9% vs -43.8%), and two-by-four homes (-5.7% vs -26.4%). On the other hand, prefabricated housing starts declined slightly more (-9.6% vs -9.3%), while growth in issued units moderated sharply to 10.2% from 76.7% in May.