今天的数据并没有破坏我们对日本央行今年晚些时候进一步加息的预期。欧洲货币联盟收益率曲线昨日持平。稳健的欧洲货币联盟采购经理人指数和欧洲央行再次确认了依赖数据的观望模式，导致市场重新考虑了对欧洲央行进一步宽松的预期。

Today's Numbers Do Not Derail Our Expectations for Further BoJ Rate Hikes Later This Year.EMU yield curves bear flattened yesterday. A solid EMU PMI and the ECB reconfirming a data-dependent wait-and-see modus caused markets to reconsider expectations on additional ECB easing.

在东京，日经225指数周五下跌371点，跌幅0.89%。安川电机（-6.00%）、佳能（-4.43%）和马自达汽车（-4.42%）领跌。

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 Index decreased 371 points or 0.89 percent on Friday. Losses were driven by Yaskawa Electric (-6.00%), Canon (-4.43%) and Mazda Motor (-4.42%).

周五，日本10年期政府债券收益率小幅降至1.59%左右，结束了两天的上涨，因为投资者重新评估了美日贸易协议和更广泛政策前景的影响。该协议对日本对美国的出口征收15%的关税，远低于唐纳德·特朗普总统此前威胁的25%，这在一定程度上缓解了贸易不确定性。在数据方面，东京7月份的核心通胀率低于预期，但仍远高于日本央行2%的目标，强化了市场对今年再次加息的预期。日本央行将于下周宣布其政策决定，普遍预计将保持利率稳定，但可能会在其季度展望中上调通胀预测。本周早些时候，副行长内田慎一表示对进一步收紧政策持谨慎态度，理由是全球贸易政策的不确定性加剧及其对经济增长的潜在拖累。

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield edged down to around 1.59% on Friday, snapping a two-day advance as investors reassessed the implications of the US-Japan trade deal and broader policy outlook. The agreement imposes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports to the US, significantly lower than the 25% previously threatened by President Donald Trump, providing some relief but keeping trade-related uncertainty elevated. On the data front, Tokyo’s core inflation in July came in below expectations but remained well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, reinforcing market expectations for another rate hike this year. The BOJ will announce its policy decision next week and is widely expected to keep rates steady, but will likely revise up its inflation forecast in its quarterly outlook. Earlier this week, Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida signaled a cautious stance on further tightening, citing heightened uncertainty over global trade policy and its potential drag on growth.

2025年5月，追踪工厂产出、就业和零售额等关键数据的日本重合经济指标指数为116.0，略高于115.9的初步估计，但与4月份的读数持平。最新结果反映了经济适度复苏，但受到美国贸易政策的不确定性和持续的成本压力的影响。与此同时，本月工业产出持平，但就业状况有改善的迹象。与此同时，政府继续通过有针对性的措施减轻大米价格飙升的负担。在政策方面，日本央行保持谨慎立场，密切关注外部风险和国内通胀趋势。央行表示有意逐步加息，但强调需要灵活应对不断变化的经济状况。

Japan’s index of coincident economic indicators—which tracks key data such as factory output, employment, and retail sales—stood at 116.0 in May 2025, slightly above the flash estimate of 115.9 but unchanged from April's reading. The latest result reflected a moderately recovering economy, tempered by uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and persistent cost pressures. Simultaneously, industrial output was flat in the month, but there were signs of improvement in employment conditions. Meanwhile, the government continued efforts to ease the burden of soaring rice prices through targeted measures. On the policy front, the Bank of Japan maintained a cautious stance, keeping a close eye on external risks and inflationary trends at home. The central bank signaled its intention to gradually raise interest rates but emphasized the need for flexibility in response to evolving economic conditions.