周五，日本10年期政府债券收益率升至1.42%以上，结束了连续两天的下滑，此前5月份核心通胀率连续第三个月加速至3.7%，为2023年1月以来的最高水平。高于预期的数据强化了人们的预期，即日本央行可能会继续收紧货币政策以应对持续的通胀压力。本周早些时候，日本央行将基准利率稳定在0.5%，但强调企业仍在将工资增长转嫁给物价，从而维持了较高的核心通胀。日本央行行长上田和夫重申了央行以数据为导向的立场，并表示如果通胀持续下去，将对进一步加息持开放态度。日本央行还表示，计划从明年开始逐步缩减其资产负债表，强调了对政策正常化的谨慎态度。

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 1.42% on Friday, ending a two-day slide after core inflation accelerated for the third consecutive month to 3.7% in May, its highest level since January 2023. The hotter-than-expected data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan may continue tightening monetary policy to address persistent inflationary pressures. Earlier this week, the BOJ held its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.5% but highlighted that firms are still passing wage increases through to prices, sustaining elevated core inflation. Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the central bank’s data-driven stance, signaling openness to further rate hikes if inflation persists. The BOJ also signaled plans for a gradual reduction of its balance sheet starting next year, underscoring a cautious approach to policy normalization.

周五，日元兑美元汇率升至145，在日本核心通胀率连续第三个月加速至3.7%，为2023年1月以来的最高水平后，日元收复了最近的部分失地。这强化了人们对日本央行可能继续收紧货币政策以应对持续通胀压力的预期。本周早些时候，日本央行将基准利率稳定在0.5%，但指出，企业仍在将工资上涨转嫁给物价，导致核心通胀率居高不下。日本央行行长上田和夫重申了该行依赖数据的做法，表示如果通胀持续存在，将对进一步加息持开放态度。尽管周五出现反弹，但日元本周仍下跌近1%，受美元走强的压力，以色列和伊朗之间的紧张局势升级以及美国参与该地区的可能性推动了避险需求的增加。

The Japanese yen strengthened toward 145 per dollar on Friday, recovering some of its recent losses after core inflation in Japan accelerated for the third straight month to 3.7%, the highest reading since January 2023. This reinforces expectations that the Bank of Japan may continue tightening monetary policy to combat persistent inflationary pressures. Earlier this week, the BOJ kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.5% but noted that companies are continuing to pass wage increases onto prices, keeping core inflation elevated. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the bank’s data-dependent approach, signaling openness to further rate hikes if inflation remains persistent. Despite Friday’s rebound, the yen remains down nearly 1% for the week, pressured by a stronger US dollar amid heightened safe-haven demand driven by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran and the potential for US involvement in the region.

日经225指数周五上涨0.4%，收于38600点以上，因投资者消化了日本最新的通胀数据，弥补了前一交易日的一些损失。5月份整体通胀率从前两个月的3.6%小幅降至3.5%，为2024年11月以来的最低水平。然而，不包括新鲜食品但包括能源的核心通胀率连续第三个月加速至3.7%，为2023年1月以来的最高水平。这增强了人们对日本央行将继续收紧货币政策以应对持续通胀压力的预期。对外，地缘政治担忧继续影响更广泛的情绪，有报道称美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正在考虑对伊朗发动袭击。尽管如此，科技股仍领涨，Advantest（+4.4%）、Disco（+2.6%）、Lasertec（+2.7%）、软银集团（+1.3%）和Socionext（+4.6%）的涨幅显著。

The Nikkei 225 rose 0.4% to above 38,600 on Friday, recouping some losses from the previous session as investors digested Japan’s latest inflation figures. Headline inflation eased slightly to 3.5% in May from 3.6% in the prior two months, the lowest level since November 2024. However, core inflation, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, accelerated for the third consecutive month to 3.7%, the highest since January 2023. This reinforces expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue tightening monetary policy in response to sustained inflationary pressures. Externally, geopolitical concerns continued to weigh on broader sentiment, with reports that US President Donald Trump is considering a strike on Iran. Still, tech stocks led gains, with notable advances from Advantest (+4.4%), Disco (+2.6%), Lasertec (+2.7%), SoftBank Group (+1.3%), and Socionext (+4.6%).

日元和澳元预测：核心通胀上升——日本央行加息几率转移。市场权衡中东紧张局势、日本央行加息前景和美国工厂数据，因为美元/日元趋势徘徊在关键技术水平附近。

Japanese Yen and Aussie Dollar Forecasts: Core Inflation Rises—BoJ Rate Hike Odds Shift.Markets weigh Middle East tensions, BoJ rate hike prospects, and US factory data as USD/JPY trends hover near key technical levels.