周四，随着美联储最新政策决定后美元走强，日元兑美元汇率从上一交易日的两个月高点回落至147日元兑1美元。周三，美联储公布了普遍预期的25个基点的降息，同时暗示今年将再降息两次，但2026年只降息一次，这与明年降息两到三次的预期相悖。在国内，日本央行开始了为期两天的政策会议，预计利率将保持不变，因为官员们正在评估美国关税对日本出口导向型经济的影响。尽管如此，分析师指出，由于有迹象表明日本央行有弹性，日本央行可能在10月份加息25个基点。在政治上，执政的自民党将于10月4日选出一位新领导人，接替即将离任的首相石破茂。

The yen slipped past 147 per dollar on Thursday, retreating from a two-month high hit in the prior session as the dollar strengthened after the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. On Wednesday, the Fed delivered a widely expected quarter-point cut, while signaling two more reductions this year but only one in 2026, pushing back against expectations for two or three cuts next year. Domestically, the Bank of Japan began its two-day policy meeting, where rates are expected to be kept unchanged as officials assess the impact of US tariffs on Japan’s export-driven economy. Still, analysts noted the BOJ could raise rates by 25 basis points in October amid signs of resilience. Politically, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will choose a new leader on October 4 to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

活动指南：日本央行货币政策声明（2025年9月）。日本央行的活动结束了央行一周的行动！交易员的预期是什么，日元对这一事件会有什么反应？

Event Guide: BOJ Monetary Policy Statement (September 2025).BOJ's event wraps up a week of central bank action! What are traders expecting, and how might JPY react to the event?

日经225指数上涨0.4%，收于45000点，东证指数周四上涨0.1%，收于3150点，在美联储按预期降息25个基点后，日本股市较前一交易日反弹。美联储还预计今年将再降息两次，但2026年只有一次，这与市场对明年降息两到三次的押注形成了鲜明对比。在国内，日本央行开始了为期两天的政策会议，随着官员们评估美国关税对日本出口导向型经济的影响，普遍预计利率将保持不变。尽管如此，分析师指出，由于有迹象表明日本央行有弹性，10月份可能会加息25个基点。科技股领涨，迪斯科（+3.1%）、东京电子（+3.2%）、Advantest（+3%）、软银集团（+1.5%）和Lasertec（+3.3%）稳步上涨。

The Nikkei 225 advanced 0.4% toward 45,000 while the Topix added 0.1% to 3,150 on Thursday, with Japanese stocks rebounding from the prior session after the US Federal Reserve delivered a quarter-point rate cut as expected. The Fed also projected two more cuts this year but only one in 2026, countering market bets for two or three reductions next year. Domestically, the Bank of Japan began its two-day policy meeting, with rates widely expected to be left unchanged as officials assess the impact of US tariffs on Japan’s export-driven economy. Still, analysts noted the BOJ could lift rates by 25 basis points in October amid signs of resilience. Tech shares led the gains, with Disco (+3.1%), Tokyo Electron (+3.2%), Advantest (+3%), SoftBank Group (+1.5%) and Lasertec (+3.3%) posting solid advances.

2025年7月，日本核心机械订单（不包括船舶和电力等波动性行业）环比下降4.6%，至8980亿日元，扭转了6月份3%的增长，远低于1.7%的下降预期。非制造业领跌，下滑3.9%至5011亿日元，而制造业订单增长3.9%至4284亿日元。按行业划分，有色金属（-53.5%）、房地产（-44%）、采矿和采石（-21.2%）以及金融和保险（-16.7%）的收缩幅度最大。私营部门订单同比增长4.9%，低于6月份7.6%的增长率和5.4%的预期。核心机械订单被视为未来六到九个月资本支出的一个关键但不稳定的领先指标。

Japan’s core machinery orders—which exclude volatile sectors such as ships and electric power—fell 4.6% month-over-month to ¥898 billion in July 2025, reversing a 3% increase in June and coming in well below expectations for a 1.7% decline. The drop was led by the non-manufacturing sector, which slipped 3.9% to ¥501.1 billion, while manufacturing orders rose 3.9% to ¥428.4 billion. By industry, the steepest contractions were recorded in non-ferrous metals (-53.5%), real estate (-44%), mining and quarrying (-21.2%) and finance and insurance (-16.7%). Year-on-year, private-sector orders rose 4.9%, easing from June’s 7.6% growth and missing forecasts of 5.4%. Core machinery orders are seen as a key yet volatile leading indicator of capital expenditure over the coming six to nine months.