周三，日本10年期政府债券收益率跌至1.3%左右，创下一周新低，因令人失望的经济数据抑制了投资者情绪。3月份的数据显示，工业生产下降幅度超过预期，而零售销售增长也不尽如人意，这引发了人们对日本复苏力度的担忧。市场现在关注的是日本央行即将做出的政策决定，普遍预计央行将把利率稳定在0.5%。随着美国新关税对日本出口导向型经济的影响的不确定性日益增加，政策制定者预计将谨慎行事。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周二表示，特朗普政府已就潜在的贸易协议与日本举行了“实质性会谈”，这为双边关系带来了一丝乐观。

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield slipped to around 1.3% on Wednesday, marking a one-week low as disappointing economic data dampened investor sentiment. March figures revealed that industrial production fell more than expected, while retail sales growth also underwhelmed, raising concerns about the strength of Japan’s recovery. Markets are now focused on the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision, where the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.5%. Policymakers are expected to tread cautiously amid growing uncertainty surrounding the impact of new US tariffs on Japan’s export-driven economy. Adding to the mix, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that the Trump administration had held “substantial talks” with Japan on a potential trade deal, offering a glimmer of optimism for bilateral relations.

日本工业产出下滑-1.1%受汽车疲软影响。根据经济、贸易和工业部的数据，机动车产量下降5.9%是导致汽车产量大幅下降的主要原因。值得注意的是，由于出口需求疲软，普通乘用车产量环比下滑4.1%，而小型车产量环比暴跌23.2%，反映了汽车零部件供应链的中断。

Japan's industrial output slides -1.1% mom on auto weakness.According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the sharp drop was led by a -5.9% mom fall in motor vehicle output. Notably, regular passenger car production slipped -4.1% mom due to weaker export demand, while small vehicle output plunged -23.2% mom, reflecting disruptions in auto parts supply chains.

周三，日元兑美元汇率跌至142.4左右，连续第二天下跌，一系列令人失望的经济数据打压市场情绪。3月份的数据显示，工业生产下降幅度超过预期，而零售销售增长也低于预期，这表明日本经济可能面临逆风。现在，人们的注意力转向了日本央行即将做出的政策决定，普遍预计央行将把利率维持在0.5%不变。预计政策制定者在评估美国新征收的关税对日本出口依赖型经济的潜在影响时将采取谨慎立场。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周二表示，特朗普政府与日本就可能达成的贸易协定举行了“实质性会谈”，这为缓解双边紧张局势带来了一些希望。

The Japanese yen slipped to around 142.4 per US dollar on Wednesday, marking its second consecutive day of losses, as a string of disappointing economic data pressured sentiment. March figures showed that industrial production declined more than expected, while retail sales growth also fell short of forecasts—signaling potential headwinds for Japan’s economy. Attention now turns to the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision, where the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. Policymakers are expected to take a cautious stance as they evaluate the potential impact of newly imposed US tariffs on Japan’s export-reliant economy. Adding to the mix, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that the Trump administration held "substantial talks" with Japan regarding a possible trade agreement, offering some hope for easing bilateral tensions.

活动指南：日本央行货币政策声明（2025年5月）。鉴于全球贸易的不确定性，日本央行的政策制定者是否正在转向不那么强硬的立场？以下是交易这种顶级催化剂时需要了解的关键点。

Event Guide: BOJ Monetary Policy Statement (May 2025).Are BOJ policymakers shifting to a less hawkish stance given global trade uncertainties? Here are the key points to know when trading this top-tier catalyst.