前央行官员表示，即使高一赢得领导权竞选，日本央行也可能在10月加息。日本央行前行长下田智行周四表示，即使激进货币宽松政策的支持者高一赢得执政党的领导权竞选并成为下一任首相，日本央行也可能在10月加息。

BOJ may raise rates in October even if Takaichi wins leadership race, says ex-c.bank official.The Bank of Japan could raise interest rates in October even if Sanae Takaichi, a proponent of aggressive monetary easing, wins the ruling party's leadership race and becomes the next premier, former central bank executive Tomoyuki Shimoda said on Thursday.

日本央行会议预览：维持现状。对美元/日元的影响。人们普遍预计，日本央行将在2025年9月19日的会议上将其政策利率保持在0.5%。由于日本国内的政治不确定性和国际贸易的挑战，未来的经济前景仍然谨慎。

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting Preview: Maintaining the Status Quo. Implications for USD/JPY.The Bank of Japan is broadly expected to keep its policy rate at 0.5% during its meeting on September 19, 2025. The future economic outlook remains cautious because of political uncertainty within Japan and challenges from international trade.

周四，日本10年期政府债券收益率升至1.6%以上，在日本央行开始为期两天的政策会议后，从上一交易日的下跌中反弹，预计利率将保持不变，同时官员们正在权衡美国关税对出口驱动型经济的影响。尽管如此，分析人士表示，在有弹性迹象的情况下，日本央行可能会在10月份加息25个基点。在政治上，执政的自民党将于10月4日选举一位新领导人，接替即将离任的首相石破茂。日本国债收益率也跟随美国国债走高，此前美联储周三公布了普遍预期的25个基点的降息，同时预计今年将再降息两次，但2026年只有一次，这与明年降息两到三次的预期相反。

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 1.6% on Thursday, rebounding from the prior session’s decline as the Bank of Japan began its two-day policy meeting, where rates are expected to be kept unchanged while officials weigh the impact of US tariffs on the export-driven economy. Still, analysts suggested the BOJ could raise rates by 25 basis points in October amid signs of resilience. Politically, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will elect a new leader on October 4 to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Japanese yields also tracked US Treasuries higher after the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected quarter-point cut on Wednesday, while projecting two more reductions this year but only one in 2026, pushing back against expectations for two or three cuts next year.

周四，随着美联储最新政策决定后美元走强，日元兑美元汇率从上一交易日的两个月高点回落至147日元兑1美元。周三，美联储公布了普遍预期的25个基点的降息，同时暗示今年将再降息两次，但2026年只降息一次，这与明年降息两到三次的预期相悖。在国内，日本央行开始了为期两天的政策会议，预计利率将保持不变，因为官员们正在评估美国关税对日本出口导向型经济的影响。尽管如此，分析师指出，由于有迹象表明日本央行有弹性，日本央行可能在10月份加息25个基点。在政治上，执政的自民党将于10月4日选出一位新领导人，接替即将离任的首相石破茂。

The yen slipped past 147 per dollar on Thursday, retreating from a two-month high hit in the prior session as the dollar strengthened after the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. On Wednesday, the Fed delivered a widely expected quarter-point cut, while signaling two more reductions this year but only one in 2026, pushing back against expectations for two or three cuts next year. Domestically, the Bank of Japan began its two-day policy meeting, where rates are expected to be kept unchanged as officials assess the impact of US tariffs on Japan’s export-driven economy. Still, analysts noted the BOJ could raise rates by 25 basis points in October amid signs of resilience. Politically, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will choose a new leader on October 4 to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.