美元/日元：反复的上行拒绝使下行面临风险。美元兑日元在周一下跌1.1%后，周二上午小幅上涨，这给该货币对增加了压力，此前在144.13/21的双斐波那契障碍下反复被拒绝上行（突破139.57/158.87/38.2%151.20/139.88,76.4%）。

USD/JPY: Repeated Upside Rejections Keep Downside at Risk.USDJPY edged higher on Tuesday morning after 1.1% drop on Monday which added pressure on the pair, following repeated upside rejection under double Fibo barriers at 144.13/21 (broken 76.4% of 139.57/158.87 / 38.2% of 151.20/139.88).

欧元/日元保持在162.50附近的涨幅，由于欧洲央行的温和信号，似乎有可能下跌。欧元/日元在上一交易日下跌超过0.50%后上涨，周二欧洲时间交易在162.40左右。随着日元（JPY）走弱，货币交叉正在取得进展，这是由于对传统避险资产的需求下降，对美中贸易关系的乐观情绪再次出现。

EUR/JPY holds gains near 162.50, downside seems possible due to ECB's dovish signals.EUR/JPY gains ground after registering more than 0.50% losses in the previous session, trading around 162.40 during European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross is gaining ground as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens, driven by a decline in demand for traditional safe-haven assets amid renewed optimism over US-China trade relations.

周二，由于投资者应对全球贸易的不确定性，日元兑美元汇率跌至142.3左右，上一交易日跌幅超过1%。周一，由于美中贸易关系缺乏进展，美元普遍走弱，尽管特朗普声称，北京方面否认正在与华盛顿进行贸易谈判。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特也坚称，缓和贸易紧张局势“取决于中国”，同时补充说，与印度的贸易协议可能很快就会宣布。与此同时，日本官员对与美国正在进行的贸易谈判仍然守口如瓶，尽管财政大臣加藤胜信暗示，货币问题可能是更广泛贸易谈判的一部分。投资者现在期待着日本央行本周的货币政策会议，人们普遍预计日本央行将保持其政策利率稳定在0.5%，因为它正在监测美国关税对日本出口导向型经济的潜在影响。

The Japanese yen slipped to around 142.3 per dollar on Tuesday, paring gains of over 1% in the previous session as investors navigated global trade uncertainties. On Monday, the dollar weakened broadly amid a lack of progress on US-China trade relations, with Beijing denying that it is engaged in trade negotiations with Washington despite Trump’s claims. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also insisted that it was "up to China" to deescalate trade tensions, while adding a trade agreement with India could be announced soon. Meanwhile, Japanese officials remain tight-lipped on ongoing trade talks with the US, although Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato hinted that currency issues could be part of broader trade negotiations. Investors now look ahead to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting this week, where it is widely expected to keep its policy rate steady at 0.5% as it monitors the potential impact of US tariffs on Japan’s export-driven economy.

巴克莱银行讨论日本四大人寿保险公司减少日本国债持有量的计划。我早些时候在日经指数上发帖称：“日本人寿保险公司将削减90亿美元的日本国债持有量”。简而言之，现在通过巴克莱银行的一份报告：日本最大的四家人寿保险公司计划减少或保持日本国债不变。许多人寿保险公司认为，与负债成本相比，超长债券具有吸引力，但他们不太可能大举购买。大多数公司已经完成了资产负债期限匹配，以遵守新规定，并对收益率上升的风险保持谨慎。

Barclays on plans by Japan's largest four life insurers to reduce JGB holdings.I posted earlier on Nikkei: "Japan life insurers set to cut JGB holdings by $9bn" Via a Barclays note now, in brief: Japan's largest four life insurers plan to reduce or stay flat in JGBs Many life insurers view super-long bonds as attractive compared to their liability costs, but they are unlikely to buy aggressively. Most have already completed their asset-liability duration matching to comply with new regulations and remain cautious about the risk of rising yields.