周二，日元兑美元汇率升至147日元，延续了第二个交易日的涨势，因为美元在美联储预期降息之前有所回落。市场几乎完全预计本周将降息25个基点，预计今年将总共放松67个基点。这些预期得到了数据的支撑，数据显示美国劳动力市场降温和通胀疲软。在国内，日本央行将于本周制定政策，并普遍预计将利率维持在0.5%不变，因为官员们正在评估美国关税对日本出口导向型经济的影响。贸易商也在等待新的数据，预计进出口将保持疲软，核心CPI预测将放缓至2.7%，为2024年11月以来的最低水平。

The yen strengthened toward 147 per dollar on Tuesday, extending gains for a second session as the dollar eased ahead of an expected Federal Reserve rate cut. Markets are almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point reduction this week, with a total of 67 bps of easing projected for the year. Those expectations have been underpinned by data showing a cooling US labor market and subdued inflation. Domestically, the Bank of Japan will set policy this week and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.5% as officials assess the impact of US tariffs on Japan’s export-driven economy. Traders are also awaiting fresh data, with exports and imports expected to remain weak and core CPI forecast to slow to 2.7%, the lowest since November 2024.

日本林表示，东京对与美国实施关税协议感到满意。日本内阁官房长官Yoshimasa Hayashi表示，东京对与美国的关税协议的持续执行感到高兴，强调该协议是两国经济合作稳定的标志。林指出，到目前为止，两国政府都遵守了该协议下的承诺，该协议旨在使贸易流动顺畅，减少敏感部门的摩擦。

Japan's Hayashi said Tokyo pleased with implementation of tariff agreement with the US.Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Tokyo is pleased with the consistent implementation of its tariff agreement with the United States, underscoring the deal as a sign of stable economic cooperation between the two countries. Hayashi noted that both governments have maintained their commitments under the pact so far, which is designed to smooth trade flows and reduce friction in sensitive sectors.

日经225指数周二首次短暂突破45000点大关，随后因投资者从延长的假日周末回来并权衡全球贸易和利率前景而收窄涨幅。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周一表示，美中在西班牙的贸易谈判正在取得进展，特朗普与中国习近平主席定于周五通话，最终确定条款。投资者也在等待美联储本周的预期降息。在国内，日本央行将政策利率维持在0.5%，因为官员们正在评估美国关税对日本出口导向型经济的影响。在企业方面，迪斯科飙升6.3%，东京电子上涨2.6%，任天堂下跌3.8%，三丽鸥下跌2.9%。

The Nikkei 225 briefly topped the 45,000 mark for the first time on Tuesday before trimming gains as investors returned from an extended holiday weekend and weighed the global trade and rates outlook. US President Donald Trump said Monday that US-China trade negotiations in Spain were making progress, with a call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping set for Friday to finalize terms. Investors also awaited an expected rate cut from the US Federal Reserve this week. At home, the Bank of Japan is seen holding its policy rate at 0.5% as officials assess the impact of US tariffs on Japan’s export-driven economy. On the corporate front, Disco surged 6.3% and Tokyo Electron gained 2.6%, while Nintendo dropped 3.8% and Sanrio fell 2.9%.

美元走低，交易员押注鸽派美联储：欧元/美元、英镑/美元、美元/加元、美元/日元分析。外汇交易员押注美联储将在周三下调联邦基金利率。

U.S. Dollar Moves Lower As Traders Bet On Dovish Fed: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.Forex traders bet that Fed will cut the federal funds rate on Wednesday.