周一，日元兑美元汇率跌至154日元，接近9个月低点，外界预计新政府将推动大规模刺激计划并支持宽松的货币政策。该计划纲要草案显示，首相高一的政府将敦促央行在稳定物价的同时优先考虑强劲的经济增长。该计划预计将于11月21日敲定，将包括针对17个关键行业的减税和投资激励措施。与此同时，日本央行10月份的意见摘要强调，政策制定者将稳定的工资增长作为未来决策的关键因素。日本央行下一次加息的时机仍然高度不确定，市场正在考虑12月加息的可能性。

The Japanese yen depreciated toward 154 per dollar on Monday, nearing nine-month lows amid expectations that the new administration will push for a massive stimulus package and support accommodative monetary policy. A draft outline of the plan indicated that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government will urge the central bank to prioritize strong economic growth alongside stable prices. The package, expected to be finalized on November 21, is set to include tax cuts and investment incentives targeting 17 key industries. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s October Summary of Opinions highlighted policymakers’ focus on steady wage growth as a key factor for future decisions. The timing of the BOJ’s next rate hike remains highly uncertain, with markets considering the possibility of a move in December.

预计日本政府将于11月21日敲定一项经济刺激计划，这是日本首相高一自上个月上任以来的第一项重大政策举措。根据路透社看到的一份纲要草案，该方案将敦促日本央行专注于实现强劲的经济增长，同时保持物价稳定，突显出高一倾向于保持低利率以支持脆弱的复苏。草案称：“以实现强劲经济增长和价格稳定的方式指导货币政策是极其重要的。”。该计划将包括减轻生活成本上涨负担、促进危机管理和增长投资以及加强日本国防能力的措施。政府还承诺与日本央行密切协调，以防止通货紧缩的回归并维持经济增长。日经报道称，该计划将针对17个关键行业的投资进行减税。

The Japanese government is expected to finalise an economic stimulus package on November 21, marking Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s first major policy initiative since taking office last month. According to a draft outline seen by Reuters, the package will urge the Bank of Japan to focus on achieving strong economic growth accompanied by stable prices, underscoring Takaichi’s preference for keeping interest rates low to support a fragile recovery. “It is extremely important for monetary policy to be guided in a way that achieves strong economic growth and price stability,” the draft said. The plan will include measures to ease the burden of rising living costs, boost crisis management and growth investment, and strengthen Japan’s defence capabilities. The government also pledged to coordinate closely with the BoJ to prevent a return to deflation and sustain growth. The Nikkei reported the package will feature tax cuts targeting investment in 17 key industries.

根据10月份会议的意见摘要，日本央行表示，随着经济活动和价格的改善，它可能会继续逐步加息，但强调在持续的不确定性中保持谨慎。央行指出，它必须评估其增长和通胀前景是否会“毫无先入之见”地实现。虽然预计明年工资会上涨，但生活和建筑成本的上涨表明家庭仍将面临压力。政策制定者认为，“采取进一步措施实现正常化的条件几乎已经满足”，但日本央行应仔细衡量通胀的根深蒂固程度。一些成员赞成早些时候采取行动，遏制日元走弱或美国经济强劲带来的风险，而另一些成员则警告说，如果美国市场疲软，将面临下行风险。董事会得出结论，尽管加息的时间即将到来，但谨慎的做法仍然是稍等一段时间，逐步转向中性立场。

The Bank of Japan signaled that it may continue to gradually raise interest rates as economic activity and prices improve, but emphasized caution amid persistent uncertainties, according to the summary of opinions from its October meeting. The central bank noted that it must assess whether its outlook for growth and inflation will materialize “without any preconceptions.” While wage gains are expected next year, rising living and construction costs suggest households will remain under pressure. Policymakers viewed that “conditions for taking a further step toward normalization have almost been met,” but the BoJ should carefully gauge how entrenched inflation is. Some members favored earlier action to curb risks from a weaker yen or a strong U.S. economy, while others warned of downside risks if U.S. markets weaken. The board concluded that, though the time for a rate hike is nearing, it remains prudent to wait slightly longer and move gradually toward a neutral stance.

日本央行总结显示，随着成员国就近期加息进行辩论，分歧缩小。日本央行10月29日至30日的意见摘要显示，政策制定者越来越一致地认为，加息的条件即将到位。八项意见要么呼吁尽快加息，要么概述了短期内借贷成本上升的条件，这是迄今为止日本央行正在为下一步行动做准备的最明显迹象。

BoJ summary show split narrows as members debate near term rate hike.The BoJ's Summary of Opinions from October 29–30 meeting revealed a growing consensus among policymakers that conditions are nearly in place for a rate hike. Eight opinions either called for raising interest rates soon or outlined conditions under which borrowing costs should rise in the near term—marking the clearest sign yet that the BoJ is preparing for its next move.