周四，日本10年期政府债券收益率下跌近10个基点，至1.39%左右，因为在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普公布全面互惠关税后，投资者争相购买更安全的资产，这加剧了可能阻碍经济增长的全球贸易战。特朗普对中国加征了34%的关税，使该国的总关税达到54%。面临高额关税的其他主要经济体包括欧盟（20%）、日本（24%）和印度（26%），以及对所有进口商品征收10%的基准关税。本周早些时候，日本央行行长上田和夫警告称，美国的新关税可能会对全球贸易和经济稳定产生重大影响。尽管预计日本央行将在今年晚些时候进一步加息，但对贸易紧张局势和国内经济不确定性的持续担忧继续影响前景。

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield dropped nearly 10 basis points to around 1.39% on Thursday as investors rushed for safer assets after US President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping reciprocal tariffs, escalating the global trade war that could thwart economic growth. Trump imposed an additional 34% tariff on China, bringing total levies on the country to 54%. Other major economies facing steep tariffs include the EU (20%), Japan (24%), and India (26%), along with a 10% baseline tariff on all imports. Earlier this week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda cautioned that the new US tariffs could significantly impact global trade and economic stability. While the BOJ is expected to raise interest rates further later this year, ongoing concerns over trade tensions and domestic economic uncertainty continue to weigh on the outlook.

周四，日元兑美元升值超过148日元，创下三周新高，因为在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布全面互惠关税后，投资者寻求避险资产，加剧了对破坏性全球贸易战的担忧。特朗普对中国加征了34%的关税，将对中国的总征税提高到54%。面临高额关税的其他主要经济体包括欧盟（20%）、日本（24%）和印度（26%），以及对所有国家进口商品征收10%的基准关税。本周早些时候，日本央行行长上田和夫警告称，美国的新关税可能会对全球贸易和经济增长产生重大影响。尽管预计日本央行将在今年晚些时候进一步加息，但全球贸易和国内经济状况的不确定性继续影响前景。

The Japanese yen appreciated past 148 per dollar on Thursday, hitting a three-week high as investors sought safe-haven assets after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs, escalating fears of a disruptive global trade war. Trump imposed an additional 34% tariff on China, raising total levies on the country to 54%. Other major economies facing hefty tariffs include the EU (20%), Japan (24%), and India (26%), alongside a 10% baseline tariff on imports from all countries. Earlier this week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that the new US tariffs could significantly impact global trade and economic growth. While the BOJ is expected to raise interest rates further later this year, uncertainty over global trade and domestic economic conditions continues to weigh on the outlook.

2025年3月，Au Jibun Bank日本服务业采购经理人指数为50，高于初步估计的49.5，但低于2月份的六个月高点53.7。新订单增长放缓至四个月低点，而新出口业务以较弱但稳健的速度扩张。就业创造降至三个月低点，但仍高于系列平均水平。与此同时，优秀企业经历了新的增长，尽管积累率温和。价格指数显示了相反的趋势：投入成本以19个月来最快的速度飙升，但随着吸引和确保新订单的努力导致产出费用通胀放缓，定价能力减弱，达到五个月低点。 展望未来，商业信心连续第二个月下降。乐观情绪达到2021年1月以来的最低水平，人们对成本上升、劳动力短缺和人口老龄化的担忧。

The Au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI recorded 50 in March 2025, improving from the flash estimate of 49.5 but declining from February’s six-month high of 53.7. New order growth slowed to a four-month low, while new export business expanded at a weaker yet solid pace. Job creation eased to a three-month low but remained above the series average. Meanwhile, outstanding businesses experienced a renewed increase, although the accumulation rate was mild. Price indices revealed contrasting trends: input costs surged at their fastest rate in 19 months, yet pricing power weakened as efforts to attract and secure new orders led to a moderation in output charge inflation, reaching a five-month low. Looking ahead, business confidence declined for the second consecutive month. Optimism reached its lowest level since January 2021, with concerns centered on rising costs, labor shortages, and an aging population.

2025年3月，au Jibun Bank Japan综合采购经理人指数为48.9，略高于48.5的预览读数，但低于2月份的52.0。这是自10月以来私营部门活动的首次下降，也是自2022年11月以来的最大跌幅。制造业生产的急剧下降和服务业活动的停滞主要拖累了整体数据。 新订单出现了四个月来最疲软的扩张，反映了服务公司销售增长放缓和制造业订单进一步收缩。制造业和服务业的就业人数继续小幅增长。在定价方面，成本通胀仍然显著，综合投入价格以七个月来最快的速度上涨。然而，产出费用通胀降至五个月低点。最后，由于对全球经济前景和不确定的贸易环境的担忧，市场情绪跌至2021年1月以来的最低点。

The au Jibun Bank Japan Composite PMI stood at 48.9 in March 2025, slightly above the flash reading of 48.5 but down from 52.0 in February. This marks the first decline in private sector activity since October and the steepest drop since November 2022. A sharper decline in manufacturing production and stagnation in service sector activity primarily dragged down the headline figure. New orders saw their weakest expansion in four months, reflecting slower sales growth among service companies and a further contraction in manufacturing orders. Employment continued to rise modestly in both manufacturing and service sectors. On pricing, cost inflation remained significant, with composite input prices increasing at their fastest rate in seven months. However, output charge inflation eased to a five-month low. Lastly, sentiment dipped to its lowest point since January 2021, driven by concerns over the global economic outlook and an uncertain trade environment.