周四，日本10年期政府债券收益率升至1.6%以上，在日本央行开始为期两天的政策会议后，从上一交易日的下跌中反弹，预计利率将保持不变，同时官员们正在权衡美国关税对出口驱动型经济的影响。尽管如此，分析人士表示，在有弹性迹象的情况下，日本央行可能会在10月份加息25个基点。在政治上，执政的自民党将于10月4日选举一位新领导人，接替即将离任的首相石破茂。日本国债收益率也跟随美国国债走高，此前美联储周三公布了普遍预期的25个基点的降息，同时预计今年将再降息两次，但2026年只有一次，这与明年降息两到三次的预期相反。

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 1.6% on Thursday, rebounding from the prior session’s decline as the Bank of Japan began its two-day policy meeting, where rates are expected to be kept unchanged while officials weigh the impact of US tariffs on the export-driven economy. Still, analysts suggested the BOJ could raise rates by 25 basis points in October amid signs of resilience. Politically, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will elect a new leader on October 4 to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Japanese yields also tracked US Treasuries higher after the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected quarter-point cut on Wednesday, while projecting two more reductions this year but only one in 2026, pushing back against expectations for two or three cuts next year.