避险模式可能刺激日元进一步下跌。上周，美联储采取了更多的“观望”态度。美联储按预期维持利率，理由是经济强劲，并将最近的任何指标异常归因于关税引起的净出口波动。

Risk-Off Mode Could Spur Further Yen Decline.Last week brought more ‘wait and see' from the FED. The central bank held rates as expected, citing the economy's strength and attributing any recent indicator anomalies to tariff-induced swings in net exports.

美元/日元–25年5月12日。美元兑日元触及146.85，今天也突破高点，达到148.25的目标。正如我们在图表上看到的，价格在147.50左右面临第一个支撑，而第二个支撑在145.70。

USD/JPY –12.05.2025.USDJPY hit 146.85 and also today broke higher to meet the target of 148.25. As we see over the chart, prices face the first support around 147.50 while the second support is at 145.70.

周一，日本10年期政府债券收益率跃升近10个基点，至1.45%左右，创下五周多来的新高，因为美国和中国同意大幅降低关税后，全球风险偏好有所改善。这一突破是在周末瑞士举行的富有成效的贸易谈判之后取得的，谈判缓解了地缘政治紧张局势，减少了对日本政府债券等避险资产的需求。根据初步协议，美国对中国商品的关税将从145%降至30%，而中国将把对美国进口商品的关税从125%降至10%——此举被广泛认为是缓和长期贸易战的关键一步。投资者还关注了美日贸易谈判的进展，东京的目标是在6月前敲定协议。在国内方面，日本3月份报告的经常账户盈余为3.45万亿日元，低于2月份创纪录的4.06万亿日元，反映出其对外头寸的持续强劲。

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield jumped nearly 10 basis points to around 1.45% on Monday, hitting an over five-week high as global risk appetite improved after the U.S. and China agreed to substantially reduce tariffs. The breakthrough followed productive trade negotiations over the weekend in Switzerland, easing geopolitical tensions and reducing demand for safe-haven assets such as Japanese government bonds. Under the preliminary agreement, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will be slashed from 145% to 30%, while China will cut its tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10%—a move widely viewed as a critical step toward de-escalating the prolonged trade war. Investors also monitored the progress of U.S.-Japan trade talks, with Tokyo aiming to finalize an agreement by June. On the domestic front, Japan reported a current account surplus of JPY 3.45 trillion in March, down from a record JPY 4.06 trillion in February, reflecting ongoing strength in its external position.

周一，由于美中贸易谈判取得突破，对避险资产的需求减弱，日元兑美元汇率大幅下跌至近148日元兑1美元，创下一个月低点。上周末，两国在瑞士同意大幅降低关税，这标志着两国长期贸易争端的严重缓和。根据初步协议，美国对中国商品的关税将从145%降至30%，而中国将把对美国进口商品的关税从125%降至10%。与此同时，美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克指出，对其他国家商品征收10%的基准关税可能“在可预见的未来保持不变”。投资者还关注着美国和日本正在进行的贸易谈判的进展，东京的目标是在6月前达成潜在协议。在国内方面，继2月份创纪录的4.06万亿日元盈余之后，日本3月份的经常账户盈余为3.45万亿日元。

The Japanese yen weakened sharply to nearly 148 per dollar on Monday, hitting a one-month low as demand for safe-haven assets waned following a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade negotiations. The two countries agreed over the weekend in Switzerland to significantly reduce tariffs, signaling a major de-escalation in their long-running trade dispute. Under the preliminary agreement, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will be slashed from 145% to 30%, while China will lower tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10%. Meanwhile, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick noted that the 10% baseline tariff on goods from other countries would likely "remain in place for the foreseeable future." Investors also monitored developments in ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan, with Tokyo targeting a potential agreement by June. On the domestic front, Japan posted a current account surplus of JPY 3.45 trillion in March, following a record surplus of JPY 4.06 trillion in February.