日本4月工业生产环比下降0.9%，但预计5月将反弹。日本4月份工业生产环比下降0.9%，降幅比预期的-1.4%要小。经济、贸易和工业部坚持认为，生产“波动不定”，反映了持续的不确定性，特别是在全球贸易发展方面。

Japan's industrial production falls -0.9% mom in April, but May rebound expected.Japan's industrial production fell by -0.9% mom in April, a milder decline than the expected -1.4%. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintained its view that production “fluctuates indecisively,” reflecting ongoing uncertainty, particularly around global trade developments.

周五，在东京核心通胀强于预期后，日元兑美元升值超过144，延续了前一交易日的涨幅。乐观的数据增强了人们对日本央行可能进一步加息的预期，市场预计7月份将加息25个基点。日本央行行长上田和夫周五发表讲话时指出，央行最近下调通胀预测反映了几个因素，包括贸易政策不确定性带来的全球增长风险增加、成本推动型通胀缓解以及原油价格大幅下跌。然而，他强调，修订后的前景不会影响日本央行的近期利率决定，这些决定仍以实现2%的通胀目标为基础。从外部来看，在美国上诉法院恢复唐纳德·特朗普总统的互惠关税，推翻了早些时候的联邦法院裁决后，日元也受到了新的避险需求的支持。

The Japanese yen appreciated past 144 per dollar on Friday, extending gains from the previous session after Tokyo’s core inflation came in stronger than expected. The upbeat data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan may move forward with additional interest rate hikes, with markets anticipating a 25 basis point increase in July. Speaking on Friday, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that the central bank’s recent downgrade to its inflation forecasts reflected several factors, including mounting global growth risks from trade policy uncertainty, easing cost-push inflation, and the sharp decline in crude oil prices. However, he emphasized that the revised outlook would not affect the BOJ’s near-term rate decisions, which remain anchored to achieving its 2% inflation target. Externally, the yen also drew support from renewed safe-haven demand after a US appeals court reinstated President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, overturning an earlier federal court ruling.

美元/日元艰难复苏，未来是否会出现新的下跌？。从4小时图来看，该货币对在143.05的阻力位上方交易，位于连接看跌趋势线之上。在空头出现之前，它甚至攀升至146.00点以上。

USD/JPY Struggles To Recover, Fresh Downside Ahead?.Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 143.05. It even climbed above the 146.00 level before the bears appeared.

日元多头重新获得控制权，因为强劲的东京CPI重申了日本央行加息的赌注。周五，日元（JPY）连续第二天吸引了强劲的后续买盘，并从前一天触及的两周低点进一步回升。周四，联邦上诉法院暂停了最近阻止美国总统唐纳德·特朗普全面关税的决定，全球风险情绪受到打击。

Japanese Yen bulls regain control as strong Tokyo CPI reaffirms BoJ rate hike bets.The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts strong follow-through buying for the second straight day on Friday and recovers further from a two-week low touched against its American counterpart the previous day. The global risk sentiment took a hit after a federal appeals court on Thursday paused a recent decision to block US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs.