2025年3月，意大利零售额环比下降0.5%，打破了0.2%的增长预测，扭转了2月份0.1%的反弹。下降的原因是食品（-0.5%对2月份的+0.2%）和非食品（-0.3%对0.0%）的销售额下降。按年计算，零售贸易下降2.8%，为2021年2月以来的最大跌幅，比上个月小幅修正的1.4%跌幅更大。经济下滑的主要原因是食品销售额下降4.2%，非食品销售额下降1.4%。在2024年第四季度增长0.1%之后，今年第一季度零售额下降了0.2%。

Retail sales in Italy fell by 0.5% month-on-month in March 2025, defying forecasts of a 0.2% gain and reversing a 0.1% rebound in February. The decline was driven by lower sales of both food products (-0.5% vs +0.2% in February) and non-food products (-0.3% vs 0.0%). On a yearly basis, retail trade dropped 2.8%, the steepest decline since February 2021, and deeper than the marginally revised 1.4% fall in the previous month. The downturn was mainly due to a 4.2% drop in food sales and a 1.4% decrease in non-food items. For the first quarter of the year, retail sales slipped 0.2%, following a 0.1% rise in Q4 2024.

周三早盘，富时MIB指数攀升至38722点左右，创下五周新高，表现优于大多数地区同行。投资者继续等待新一轮企业财报，同时也关注今天晚些时候即将到来的美国政策决定，寻找未来利率走势的线索。市场也在关注美中贸易谈判的进展。在经济方面，PMI数据显示，意大利建筑业在3月份强劲反弹后，4月份几乎停滞不前。与此同时，3月份零售额环比下降0.5%，低于0.2%的增长预测，扭转了2月份0.1%的增长。在企业新闻方面，尽管联合圣保罗银行公布了强劲的第一季度收益，但其股价几乎持平。该指数中表现最佳的包括汽车制造商法拉利（+2%）和Stellantis（+1%），以及意大利邮政（+1.2%）、Banca Mediolanum（+0.8%）和意法半导体（-0.8%）。

The FTSE MIB climbed to around 38,722 in early trading on Wednesday, marking a fresh five-week high, and outperforming most of its regional peers. Investors continued to await a new round of corporate earnings, while also focused on the upcoming US policy decision later today, looking for clues on the future path of interest rates. Markets also keep an eye on developments in US-China trade talks. On the economic front, PMI data showed that Italy's construction sector was nearly stagnant in April, following a strong rebound in March. Meanwhile, retail sales fell by 0.5% month-on-month in March, missing forecasts of a 0.2% increase and reversing a 0.1% gain in February. In corporate news, Intesa Sanpaolo traded nearly flat despite reporting strong Q1 earnings. Top performers on the index included carmakers Ferrari (+2%) and Stellantis (+1%), as well as Poste Italiane (+1.2%), Banca Mediolanum (+0.8%), and STMicroelectronics (+0.8%).

HCOB意大利建筑业采购经理人指数从3月份的52.4降至2025年4月的50.1，表明在上个月强劲复苏后，活动几乎停滞不前。经济放缓的原因是新订单和采购活动的边际增长，而供应链的限制继续推迟了材料的交付。商业建筑是唯一的亮点，连续第二个月上涨，而住宅和土木工程行业都出现了收缩，土木工程行业出现了八个月来的最大跌幅。尽管整体停滞，但在新项目开工和产能需求增加的推动下，就业率以2025年迄今为止最快的速度增长。大多数新员工都是定期合同。与此同时，由于最近的商业胜利，建筑公司的信心略有回升，但在持续的经济和地缘政治担忧下，其信心仍处于历史低位。对欧洲央行进一步降息的预期被视为对未来行业增长的潜在支持。

The HCOB Italy Construction PMI fell to 50.1 in April 2025 from 52.4 in March, signaling near-stagnant activity after the previous month’s strong recovery. The slowdown was driven by marginal growth in both new orders and purchasing activity, while supply chain constraints continued to delay material deliveries. Commercial construction was the only bright spot, rising for a second straight month, whereas both residential and civil engineering sectors contracted, with civil engineering recording the sharpest drop in eight months. Despite the overall stagnation, employment rose at the fastest pace of 2025 so far, driven by new project starts and increased capacity needs. Most new hires were on fixed-term contracts. Meanwhile, confidence among construction firms ticked up slightly due to recent business wins, but remained historically subdued amid persistent economic and geopolitical concerns. Expectations for further ECB rate cuts are seen as a potential support for future sector growth.

HCOB意大利服务业采购经理人指数从上个月的52微升至2025年4月的52.9，超过了市场预测的51.4。这表明服务业稳健且高于平均水平的扩张，这得益于新工作的增加和最近新客户的涌入。因此，就业人数再次增加，但幅度不大。除了2月份的短暂积累外，自2023年10月以来，积压的工作稳步下降，最新的消耗速度是8个月来最快的，比历史平均水平更为剧烈。在价格方面，4月份投入成本和产出价格继续上涨，尽管两者的通货膨胀率都是2025年迄今为止记录的最低水平。然而，商业信心降至四年半以来的最低水平，低于趋势水平，因为对更广泛的经济环境的不确定性和担忧加剧，影响了企业对未来12个月活动的预期。

The HCOB Italy Services PMI edged up to 52.9 in April 2025 from 52 in the previous month, beating market forecasts of 51.4. This indicated a solid and above-average expansion in the services sector, attributed to greater inflows of new work and recent new customer intakes. As a result, employment increased again, though only modestly. Except for a brief period of accumulation in February, backlogs of work have steadily declined since October 2023, with the latest rate of depletion the fastest in eight months and sharper than the historical average. On the price front, input costs and output prices continued to rise in April, though the rate of inflation for both was the softest recorded so far in 2025. However, business confidence fell to its lowest level in four and a half years and was below trend, as heightened uncertainty and concerns over the broader economic climate weighed on firms’ expectations for activity over the next 12 months.