意大利10年期英国国债收益率跌至3.44%，为两年多来的最低水平，因为法国和西班牙的通货膨胀率降至2%以下，这提高了人们对欧洲央行可能加快降息的预期。受能源成本下降的推动，法国9月份的通货膨胀率降至1.5%，三年多来首次降至2%以下。同样，由于燃料、电力和食品价格下跌，西班牙的通货膨胀率降至1.7%，均低于1.9%的预测。随着欧元区通胀的缓解，欧洲央行今年已经实施了两次降息，并可能进一步放松。私营部门的收缩增加了人们对10月17日再次降息25个基点的押注，目前认为降息的可能性为70%。然而，欧洲央行警告称，通胀可能再次上升，预计价格要到2025年底才能稳定。意大利、德国和欧元区将于下周公布最新的通胀数据。

The yield on Italy’s 10-year BTP tumbled to 3.44%, marking its lowest level in over two years, as inflation in France and Spain fell below 2%, raising expectations that the European Central Bank may accelerate rate cuts. French inflation declined to 1.5% in September, dipping below 2% for the first time in more than three years, driven by lower energy costs. Similarly, Spain’s inflation rate dropped to 1.7%, due to falling prices for fuel, electricity, and food, both undershooting the forecast of 1.9%. With inflation easing across the eurozone, the ECB has already implemented two rate cuts this year, with further easing likely. A contraction in the private sector has increased bets on an additional quarter-point rate cut, now seen as a 70% likelihood for October 17. However, the ECB has warned that inflation could rise again, and price stability is not expected until late 2025. Italy, Germany, and the Eurozone are set to release their latest inflation data next week.

2024年8月，意大利工业生产者价格较上年同期下跌0.8%，较上月1.1%的跌幅有所缓和，这是自2023年3月以来生产者通货紧缩的最温和速度。下降放缓与欧元区多个成员国的生产者价格正常化相一致，因为2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰导致能源、金属和食品价格飙升后的基准年效应减弱。能源成本（-2%）和中间产品生产商（-1.6%）的价格下跌。与此同时，消费品的通货膨胀率有所上升（0.4%），而资本货物的通货膨胀率基本保持不变（-0.1%）。与上月相比，生产者价格指数上涨了0.7%。

Industrial producer prices in Italy fell by 0.8% from the corresponding period of the previous year in August of 2024, moderating from the 1.1% drop in the earlier month to mark the softest pace of producer deflation since March 2023. The slowing decline was in line with normalizing producer prices across multiple members of the Eurozone, as base year effects following surges in energy, metal, and food prices due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 wane. Prices fell for energy costs (-2%) and intermediate goods producers (-1.6%). In the meantime, inflation picked up for consumer goods (0.4%) while remaining largely the same for capital goods (-0.1%). From the previous month, producer prices increased by 0.7%.

周五，富时MIB指数微涨0.3%，突破34500点大关，与其他欧洲市场一致，周涨幅稳步上升。这一攀升标志着两个月来的新高，这得益于对中国额外刺激措施的乐观情绪。投资者还对法国和西班牙低于预期的通胀数据做出了积极反应，这提振了人们对欧洲央行10月份可能降息25个基点的预期，目前的可能性约为70%。因此，Moncler（+9.9%）和Brunello Cucinelli（+3.2%）等奢侈品牌的表现优于其他品牌，这得益于中国市场需求增强的希望。其他表现最佳的公司包括意法半导体（+4.4%）和Stellantis（+3.3%）。然而，银行业表现滞后，Bper Banca（-2.1%）、Banca Popolare di Sondrio（-1.5%）和Banco BPM（-1.4%）均出现亏损。本周，富时MIB有望录得超过2%的涨幅。

The FTSE MIB edged up by 0.3% on Friday, surpassing the 34,500 mark and heading for solid weekly gains, in line with other European markets. This climb marked a fresh two-month high, fueled by optimism surrounding China's additional stimulus measures. Investors also reacted positively to lower-than-expected inflation data from France and Spain, which bolstered expectations for a potential 25 basis point interest rate cut by the European Central Bank in October, with current odds at about 70%. As a result, luxury brands like Moncler (+9.9%) and Brunello Cucinelli (+3.2%) outperformed, driven by hopes of stronger demand from the Chinese market. Other top performers included STMicroelectronics (+4.4%) and Stellantis (+3.3%). However, the banking sector lagged, with Bper Banca (-2.1%), Banca Popolare di Sondrio (-1.5%), and Banco BPM (-1.4%) posting losses. For the week, the FTSE MIB is poised to record a gain of over 2%.

2024年7月，意大利工业销售额较上月下降0.4%，这是连续第三次收缩，与6月份的下降率持平。国外市场的销售额大幅下降（-2.4%对6月份的1.4%），而国内市场的销售额则有所增长（0.5%对-1.3%）。在不同的工业部门中，资本品生产商的销售额下降幅度最大（-1.8%），其次是中间产品生产商（-0.6%）和消费品制造商（-0.2%）。相反，能源销售额较高（+3.3%）。与去年同期相比，工业销售额下降了4.7%。

Industrial sales in Italy fell by 0.4 percent from the previous month in July 2024, marking the third consecutive contraction, and matching the rate of decline seen in June. Sales decreased sharply in the foreign market (-2.4 percent vs 1.4 percent in June) while increasing in the domestic market (0.5 percent vs -1.3 percent). Among different industrial sectors, sales dropped the most for capital goods producers (-1.8%), followed by intermediate goods producers (-0.6%) and consumer goods manufacturers (-0.2%). Conversely, sales were higher for energy (+3.3%). From the corresponding period of the previous year, industrial sales slumped by 4.7%.