意大利10年期BTP收益率徘徊在3.58%左右,距离10月份的低点不远,因为交易员权衡了欧元区经济日益增长的下行风险、乌克兰-俄罗斯冲突的紧张局势升级,以及唐纳德·特朗普的政策和政治任命对欧洲的潜在影响,特别是在关税方面。欧洲央行在其年度《金融稳定评估》中强调,地缘政治紧张局势加剧和政策不确定性加剧了主权脆弱性,而全球贸易紧张局势加剧增加了不利经济冲击的可能性。另一方面,欧元区第三季度的谈判工资同比增长5.4%,为欧元引入以来的最高水平,德国领涨,使欧洲央行的降息计划变得更加复杂。预计央行仍将在12月第四次降息25个基点。
Italy’s 10-year BTP yield hovered around 3.58%, not far from October-lows, as traders weigh growing downside risks to the Eurozone economy, escalating tensions in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and the potential impact of Donald Trump’s policies and political appointments on Europe, particularly regarding tariffs. In its annual Financial Stability Review, the European Central Bank highlighted that heightened geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties are amplifying sovereign vulnerabilities, while rising global trade tensions are increasing the likelihood of adverse economic shocks. On the other hand, negotiated wages in the Euro Area rose 5.4% yoy in Q3, the most since the euro was introduced, and led by Germany, complicating the European Central Bank’s plans for interest rate cuts. The central bank is still expected to deliver its fourth 25 basis point rate cut in December.