意大利10年期英国国债收益率跌至3.6%以下，进一步远离5月14日触及的近一个月高点3.726%，并追随欧洲借贷成本的下降。交易员们等待贸易战的进一步明确，并继续评估更广泛的经济和货币政策前景。美国和中国同意实施为期90天的关税削减并恢复贸易谈判所引发的最初乐观情绪已经消退，投资者现在重新关注潜在的经济影响，特别是对美国经济的影响。在货币政策方面，预计欧洲央行将在6月继续降息；然而，欧洲央行管理委员会成员哈萨克斯坦表示，如果通胀恢复到预测的2%的目标，降息可能即将结束。4月，欧元区整体通胀率稳定在2.2%，而核心通胀率上升至2.7%。与此同时，第一季度GDP增长率从早先估计的0.4%下调至0.3%。

The yield on Italy’s 10-year BTP fell below 3.6%, moving further away from a near one-month high of 3.726% touched on May 14th, and tracking a fall in European borrowing costs. Traders await further clarity on the trade war and continue to assess the broader economic and monetary policy outlook. The initial optimism sparked by the US and China’s agreement to implement a 90-day tariff reduction and resume trade talks has faded, with investors now refocusing on the potential economic fallout — particularly for the US economy. On the monetary policy front, the ECB is expected to continue lowering interest rates in June; however, ECB Governing Council member Kazaks indicated that rate cuts may be nearing their end, provided inflation returns to the 2% target as forecast. In April, headline inflation in the Eurozone remained steady at 2.2%, while core inflation ticked up to 2.7%. Meanwhile, first-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 0.3% from an earlier estimate of 0.4%.

2025年3月，意大利的贸易顺差为36.57亿欧元，远低于市场预期的52亿欧元，低于去年同期的42.95亿欧元顺差。进口同比增长7.6%，达到537.5亿欧元，其中来自欧盟（6.8%）和非欧盟国家（8.8%）的采购量增加。进口增长主要是由于药品采购激增62.5%，尤其是来自中国的药品。与此同时，出口增长缓慢，为574.1亿欧元，增长5.8%，非欧盟国家（8.2%）的增长率高于欧盟国家（3.7%）。美国的出口增长最为显著（41.2%），其次是欧佩克国家（25%）和法国（4.2%）。在产品中，药品（59.8%）、运输（47.5%）、基本金属（8.1%）和食品（6.6%）的出货量增长。考虑到1月至3月，贸易顺差从上年同期的127.9亿欧元急剧下降至78.1亿欧元。

Italy recorded a trade surplus of EUR 3.657 billion in March 2025, significantly below market expectations of EUR 5.2 billion, and down from a surplus of EUR 4.295 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year. Imports advanced by 7.6% year-on-year to EUR 53.75 billion, with purchases increasing from EU (6.8%) and non-EU countries (8.8%). Import growth was primarily driven by a 62.5% surge in purchases of pharmaceutical products, particularly from China. Meanwhile, exports rose at a slower pace of 5.8% to EUR 57.41 billion, with non-EU (8.2%) rising more than EU countries (3.7%). The US recorded the most notable export growth (41.2%), followed by OPEC countries (25%), and France (4.2%). Among products, shipments rose for pharmaceutical products (59.8%), transport (47.5%), basic metals (8.1%) and food products (6.6%). Considering January to March, the trade surplus decreased sharply to EUR 7.81 billion from EUR 12.79 billion in the corresponding period in the prior year.

意大利3月份全球贸易平衡为36.57亿欧元，低于预期（52亿欧元）。意大利3月份全球贸易平衡为36.57亿欧元，低于预期（52亿欧元）

Italy Global Trade Balance came in at €3.657B, below expectations (€5.2B) in March.Italy Global Trade Balance came in at €3.657B, below expectations (€5.2B) in March

2025年4月，意大利的年通货膨胀率与上月持平，为1.9%，比初步估计的2.0%有所下调，略低于最初市场预期的2.0%。通货膨胀率保持在18个月来的最高水平，延长了意大利消费者篮子正常化的时期，在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，意大利消费者篮子在能源和粮食冲击下经历了一段时间的波动。受监管能源（31.7%对3月份的27.2%）、运输服务（4.4%对1.6%）以及新鲜食品（4.2%对3.3%）和加工食品（2.2%对1.9%）的价格上涨更快。与此同时，不受监管的能源价格下跌（-3.4%对0.7%）。不包括能源和未加工食品的核心通胀率从前一个月的1.7%急剧上升至2.1%，为一年来的最高水平。与上月相比，意大利CPI上涨了0.1%。

The annual inflation rate in Italy was unchanged from the prior month at 1.9% in April of 2025, revised lower from the preliminary estimates of 2.0% and slightly below the initial market expectations of 2.0%. The inflation rate remained at its highest in 18 months, extending the period of normalization of the Italian consumer basket that underwent periods of surges and plunges amid energy and food shocks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Prices rose faster for regulated energy (31.7% vs 27.2% in March), transportation services (4.4% vs 1.6%), and both fresh (4.2% vs 3.3%) and processed food (2.2% vs 1.9%). In the meantime, non-regulated energy prices swung to a decline (-3.4% vs 0.7%). The core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, rose sharply to 2.1% from 1.7% in the previous month, the highest in one year. From the previous month, the Italian CPI rose by 0.1%.