意大利10年期政府债券收益率攀升至3.6%以上，达到5月23日以来的最高水平，原因是投资者降低了对欧洲央行进一步降息的预期，并在欧盟-美国贸易谈判发出令人鼓舞的信号后，从避险资产转移。欧洲央行在7月份保持利率稳定，在过去一年连续八次降息后暂停。此举的部分原因是，在8月1日的关键最后期限之前，与特朗普政府的贸易谈判存在不确定性。此外，欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，随着通胀率回升至2%的目标，欧元区“处于良好状态”，这表明未来将采取更为谨慎的态度。报告显示，欧盟和美国即将达成协议，对部分欧洲进口产品征收15%的关税，同时取消对其他国家的关税。交易员现在认为9月份降息的可能性只有25%，而到12月降息的可能性已从欧洲央行决定前的90%以上降至70%左右。
Italy’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 3.6%, reaching its highest level since May 23, as investors reduced their expectations for additional ECB rate cuts and shifted away from safe-haven assets amid encouraging signals from EU–US trade negotiations. The ECB held interest rates steady in July, pausing after eight consecutive cuts over the past year. The move was partly driven by uncertainty surrounding trade talks with the Trump administration, ahead of a key August 1 deadline. Also, ECB President Lagarde stated that the bloc was “in a good place” as inflation returned to the 2% target, suggesting a more cautious approach going forward. Reports indicate that the EU and US are nearing an agreement that would impose 15% tariffs on select European imports while removing duties on others. Traders now assign just a 25% probability of a rate cut in September, while the chances of a cut by December have fallen to around 70%, down from more than 90% prior to the ECB’s decision.
