HCOB意大利制造业采购经理人指数从5月份的49.2降至2025年6月的48.4，标志着连续第15个月收缩，是三个月来最快的收缩。新订单继续下降，导致产出水平进一步下降。由于国内和国际客户的需求疲软，产量仍然大幅收缩。因此，公司削减了采购和就业，同时也减少了预生产库存。与此同时，6月份通胀压力有所缓和，这反映在投入成本和产出价格的下降上。供应商折扣在很大程度上转移给了客户，因为企业旨在保持竞争力。最后，意大利制造商6月份的产出预期仍然乐观，尽管在全球经济不确定性和客户需求疲软的情况下，信心降至去年11月以来的最低水平。

The HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.4 in June 2025 from 49.2 in May, signaling a 15th straight month of contraction and one that was the fastest in three months. New orders continued to decline, triggering a further reduction in output levels. The contraction in production remained substantial, driven by weak demand from both domestic and international clients. As a result, companies cut back on purchasing and employment, while also reducing pre-production inventories. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures moderated in June, reflected in decreases in both input costs and output prices. Supplier discounts were largely transferred to customers as businesses aimed to maintain competitiveness. Finally, output expectations among Italian manufacturers remained positive in June, though confidence slipped to its lowest level since last November amid global economic uncertainty and subdued customer demand.

周二早盘，富时MIB指数下跌0.6%，至39550点左右，从7月份开始表现疲软，因为贸易交易的不确定性打压了投资者情绪。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周一警告称，尽管进行了真诚的谈判，但各国可能会收到大幅提高关税的通知。投资者正密切关注欧盟贸易负责人，他将于本周在华盛顿举行会谈，以避免在下周最后期限到期前征收更高的关税。在企业方面，Stellantis（-3%）、Leonardo（-2.1%）和意法半导体（-1.8%）出现了显著亏损。在金融股中，Mediobanca（-3.6%）和Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena（-2.1%）也是跌幅最大的。

The FTSE MIB dropped 0.6% to around 39,550 in early trading on Tuesday, starting the month of July on a weaker note, as uncertainty over trade deals weighed on investor sentiment. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday warned that countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs despite good-faith negotiations. Investors are closely watching the EU’s trade chief, who is set to hold talks in Washington this week in an effort to avert higher tariffs before the deadline expires next week. On the corporate front, notable losses were seen from Stellantis (-3%), Leonardo (-2.1%), and STMicroelectronics (-1.8%). Among financials, Mediobanca (-3.6%) and Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (-2.1%) were also among the biggest decliners.

周一，富时MIB指数微涨0.1%，收于39797点，反映了随着7月9日美欧贸易协定最后期限的临近，其他主要欧洲市场的表现持平。由于美国对欧盟进口商品征收高达50%的关税的风险，谈判变得更加紧迫，尽管官员们仍然持乐观态度。与此同时，欧洲央行管理委员会重申了其对称的2%中期通胀目标，表明准备对持续的偏差采取果断行动。2025年6月，欧盟统一的意大利年通胀率保持在1.7%不变，低于市场预期的1.8%，而德国在2025年6月份意外放缓至2%，为9月以来的最低水平。乐观的通胀数据增强了欧洲央行降息的可行性。在企业方面，Leonardo（+2.5%）、Iveco（+2.1%）、Campari（+1.8%）和BPER Banca（+1.6%）上涨，而Stellantis（-35%）、Prysmian（-1.7%）、Pirelli（-1.5%）和Diasorin（-1.3%）下跌。

The FTSE MIB edged up 0.1% to close at 39,797 on Monday, mirroring the flat performance of other major European markets as the July 9 deadline for a US-EU trade agreement approaches. Talks have gained urgency with the risk of US tariffs of up to 50% on EU imports, though officials remain optimistic. Meanwhile, the ECB Governing Council reaffirmed its symmetric 2% medium-term inflation target, signaling readiness to act decisively in response to persistent deviations. The EU-harmonised annual inflation rate in Italy was unchanged at 1.7% in June 2025, below market estimates of 1.8%, while Germany unexpectedly slowed to 2% in June 2025, the lowest since September. The upbeat inflation data boosts the viability of interest cuts by the ECB. On the corporate front, Leonardo (+2.5%), Iveco (+2.1%), Campari (+1.8%), and BPER Banca (+1.6%) advanced, while Stellantis (-3.5%), Prysmian (-1.7%), Pirelli (-1.5%), and Diasorin (-1.3%) declined.

意大利10年期政府债券收益率小幅降至3.48%，为6月中旬以来的最低水平，投资者权衡了新的经济数据和美联储降息预期的上升。在美国总统特朗普7月9日的最后期限到来之前，市场也在密切关注全球贸易谈判的发展，以及中东持续的紧张局势。在数据方面，意大利6月份的通胀率从5月份的1.6%小幅上升至1.7%，而核心通胀率从1.9%攀升至2.1%。欧洲央行的最终利率目前定价在1.75%-1.80%左右，副行长Luis de Guindos周一表示，目前的立场是适当的，但强调需要在不确定性中保持灵活性。与此同时，随着劳动力市场势头减弱，以及美国关税导致的通胀风险上升，预计美联储今年将至少降息两次25个基点。

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield edged down toward 3.48%, its lowest level since mid-June, as investors weighed fresh economic data and rising expectations of rate cuts by both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. Markets are also closely watching developments in global trade talks ahead of the US President Trump's July 9 deadline, alongside ongoing tensions in the Middle East. On the data front, Italy’s inflation rate rose slightly to 1.7% in June from 1.6% in May, while core inflation climbed to 2.1% from 1.9%. The ECB’s terminal rate is currently priced at around 1.75%–1.80%, with Vice President Luis de Guindos stating on Monday that the current stance is appropriate but emphasizing the need to remain flexible amid uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to deliver at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, as labor market momentum softens and inflation risks rise due to US tariffs.