2025年4月，意大利的年通货膨胀率与上月持平，为1.9%，比初步估计的2.0%有所下调，略低于最初市场预期的2.0%。通货膨胀率保持在18个月来的最高水平，延长了意大利消费者篮子正常化的时期，在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，意大利消费者篮子在能源和粮食冲击下经历了一段时间的波动。受监管能源（31.7%对3月份的27.2%）、运输服务（4.4%对1.6%）以及新鲜食品（4.2%对3.3%）和加工食品（2.2%对1.9%）的价格上涨更快。与此同时，不受监管的能源价格下跌（-3.4%对0.7%）。不包括能源和未加工食品的核心通胀率从前一个月的1.7%急剧上升至2.1%，为一年来的最高水平。与上月相比，意大利CPI上涨了0.1%。

The annual inflation rate in Italy was unchanged from the prior month at 1.9% in April of 2025, revised lower from the preliminary estimates of 2.0% and slightly below the initial market expectations of 2.0%. The inflation rate remained at its highest in 18 months, extending the period of normalization of the Italian consumer basket that underwent periods of surges and plunges amid energy and food shocks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Prices rose faster for regulated energy (31.7% vs 27.2% in March), transportation services (4.4% vs 1.6%), and both fresh (4.2% vs 3.3%) and processed food (2.2% vs 1.9%). In the meantime, non-regulated energy prices swung to a decline (-3.4% vs 0.7%). The core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, rose sharply to 2.1% from 1.7% in the previous month, the highest in one year. From the previous month, the Italian CPI rose by 0.1%.

富时MIB指数周五上涨至40720点左右，达到2007年10月以来的最高水平，并将连续第五周上涨。随着投资者关注全球贸易发展，该指数追踪了各地区同行的涨幅。交易员还继续消化企业盈利，等待关键的国内数据，包括4月消费者通胀和3月贸易平衡的最终读数，这两项数据都将于今天晚些时候公布。在企业方面，Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale公布了2025年第一季度的强劲业绩，收入同比增长5.1%，达到9.02亿欧元。该股上涨约0.5%。表现最好的交易所包括Enel、Recordati、Finecobank、Davide Campari Milano和Pirelli，均上涨超过1%。然而，Stellantis在早期明显落后，跌幅超过1%。

The FTSE MIB advanced to around 40,720 on Friday, hitting its highest level since October 2007 and heading for a fifth consecutive weekly gain. The index tracked gains across regional peers as investors focused on global trade developments. Traders also continued to digest corporate earnings and awaited key domestic data, including the final reading of April’s consumer inflation and March’s trade balance, both due later today. On the corporate front, Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale posted strong Q1 2025 results, with revenue rising 5.1% year-on-year to €902 million. The stock gained around 0.5%. Top performers on the bourse included Enel, Recordati, Finecobank, Davide Campari-Milano, and Pirelli, all rising more than 1%. Stellantis, however, was a notable early laggard, falling more than 1%.

周四，富时MIB扭转早盘下跌，收于40611点，上涨0.6%，这是其连续第六次上涨，因为公用事业和国防巨头的强劲表现抵消了更广泛的欧洲市场的谨慎基调，因为人们担心即将到来的关税可能对经济产生影响。投资者还将注意力转向即将公布的企业盈利，并等待关键的国内数据，包括周五公布的4月消费者通胀和3月贸易平衡的最终读数。在表现最好的公司中，公用事业公司Enel、A2A和Hera分别上涨1.9%、1.3%和2.1%，而国防和航空航天集团Leonardo领涨3.7%，这得益于地缘政治紧张局势加剧和乌克兰战争迅速解决的希望渺茫。

The FTSE MIB reversed early losses to close 0.6% higher at 40,611 on Thursday, marking its sixth consecutive gain, as strong performances from utility and defense giants offset the cautious tone across broader European markets amid concerns over the potential economic fallout from looming tariffs. Investors also turned their focus to upcoming corporate earnings and awaited key domestic data, including the final reading of April’s consumer inflation and March’s trade balance, both due Friday. Among top performers, utility firms Enel, A2A, and Hera rose 1.9%, 1.3%, and 2.1%, respectively, while defense and aerospace group Leonardo led gains with a 3.7% jump, buoyed by heightened geopolitical tensions and fading hopes for a swift resolution to the war in Ukraine.

意大利10年期国债收益率从周三触及的近一个月高点3.726%降至3.65%，原因是投资者消化了疲软的美国经济数据并重新评估了美联储的政策前景。4月份美国零售销售增长大幅放缓，而由于贸易利润率下降，生产者价格下降，这进一步表明特朗普总统的关税可能开始对经济造成压力。与此同时，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔警告称，长期利率可能会保持高位，由于供应侧冲击日益频繁，通胀可能会变得更加不稳定。在欧洲，货币市场目前将欧洲央行的存款利率定价为年底前1.79%，6月份降息的可能性为95%，因为政策制定者希望保护经济免受贸易紧张局势升级的影响。欧洲央行官员Villeroy de Galhau支持这一观点，他表示，到夏季可能会进一步放松政策，而Joachim Nagel则指出，通胀将“很有可能”趋同于欧洲央行2%的目标。

The yield on Italy’s 10-year BTP fell to 3.65%, down from a near one-month high of 3.726% touched on Wednesday, as investors digested soft US economic data and reassessed the Fed’s policy outlook. April’s US retail sales growth slowed sharply, while producer prices declined due to falling trade margins, adding to signs that President Trump’s tariffs may be starting to weigh on the economy. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that long-term interest rates could remain elevated, with inflation potentially becoming more volatile due to increasingly frequent supply-side shocks. In Europe, money markets are now pricing the ECB’s deposit rate at 1.79% by year-end, with a 95% probability of a rate cut in June as policymakers look to shield the economy from escalating trade tensions. Supporting this view, ECB official Villeroy de Galhau suggested further easing could come by summer, while Joachim Nagel noted a “good probability” that inflation will converge toward the ECB’s 2% target.